I've tried to rationalize it, but I keep coming to the conclusion that North Korean leadership is a balanced combination of political and psychological genius and fanatic arrogance.
I find it interesting that they can be so cleverly manipulative in some ways yet at the same time naive enough to believe that people actually believe the garbage they're shown. At one point in Sophie's post she speculates as to whether her "handlers" think she bought it or even cared, but I honestly think they're arrogant enough to believe that people buy it.
There are signs that people are buying it less and less though. With the change in leadership most experts were predicting that the current NK government would probably be able to maintain its hold for at least another 20 years before collapse, but at the same time refugees fleeing from North Korea are not only quickly transforming from a trickle into an all out flood, but they are finding themselves more inclined to head to the Americas and to Europe rather than staying in South Korea, China, or Japan as they have traditionally done. Canada's number of North Korean refugees actually doubled from 2010 to 2011. As they become part of societies that traditionally have a larger voice in organizations like the United Nations, it's only a matter of time until they start pushing for action. Arrogant or not, I don't believe Kim Jong Un is stupid enough to not see this coming. Whether it happens a year from now or 20 years from now, I can only assume that he has no desire to retire at the end of a rope, as many in his position often do. When societies like this collapse, it's not usually a happy "forgive and forget" type of collapse. Who knows exactly what his plan is though...
When he pulls stunts like firing on South Korea in order to provoke a response, I would presume his intent is to induce hate and fear among his citizens in an effort to keep them under control and blinded by the bigger picture. I don't know if he realizes how close he is to overstepping his boundaries though. Most of the world might be hesitant to get involved in yet another skirmish, but I've got a few acquaintances who have served in the South Korean military, and I'm telling you their patience is wearing thin. If the order is given, they're ready to steamroll North Korea. North Korea, on the other hand, despite being poorly trained and under-equipped (yeah they have a lot of arms, but it's all aged obsolete crap), apparently has a large number of commando type units ready to respond with amphibious invasion. You don't have to be too advanced to present a threat once you're under the cover of civilian populations, as recent conflicts have demonstrated. Given the nature of our strategic alliance, we would be obligated to respond on behalf of South Korea in such a situation. Again, I don't know if it will happen next year or 20 years from now, but I just don't see this ending diplomatically. I foresee another Korean War. China's interest in North Korea as a cultural barrier between it and U.S. allied South Korea is also a potentially volatile consideration.
But again it's all just speculation. Maybe I'm way off. Things have a tendency to change in unpredictable ways and go their own course.
