Oil production expected to drop

[rainforests1]

http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-262-the-oil-revolution-story-is-dead-wrong
One of the experts on peak oil thinks oil production will start dropping in one or two years. Yes, 2015 or 2016. Assuming this is correct, what happens? If something bad happens out of this(a Depression, for instance), what can we realistically(key word realistically) do to get us out of the mess?

 

[Second Summer]

I guess it depends whether it will peak sharply or not. If the amount of oil produced is just slightly less than before, and it will decrease at a slow rate, then that is obviously easier to handle than if it's more rapid.

 

[Yokel]

There is plenty of oil left in Venezuela and Iraq, whose reserves have never been fully exploited and won't if it causes the oil price to tumble. On p183-5 of his book 'Armed Madhouse' Greg Palast shows peak oil production for Venezuela estimated as being in 2065. There are possibly oil and/or gas reserves in the South Atlantic and off the west coast of Ireland. Those in the North Sea are on the rundown.

Oil is burned in power stations over the winter peak when cheaper forms of generation are not available. Certainly wind cannot replace fossil fuels as there is no suitable storage medium for the output of the (inefficient) wind turbines. The best way to deal with the decline of oil as/when it happens is by investing in the development of electric vehicles with nuclear power stations, fusion and fission, providing the primary energy source.

 

[rainforests1]

There is plenty of oil left in Venezuela and Iraq, whose reserves have never been fully exploited and won't if it causes the oil price to tumble. On p183-5 of his book 'Armed Madhouse' Greg Palast shows peak oil production for Venezuela estimated as being in 2065. There are possibly oil and/or gas reserves in the South Atlantic and off the west coast of Ireland. Those in the North Sea are on the rundown.

Oil is burned in power stations over the winter peak when cheaper forms of generation are not available. Certainly wind cannot replace fossil fuels as there is no suitable storage medium for the output of the (inefficient) wind turbines. The best way to deal with the decline of oil as/when it happens is by investing in the development of electric vehicles with nuclear power stations, fusion and fission, providing the primary energy source.

Is it cheap oil? If it's too expensive we won't be touching it. Of course some will claim otherwise, but a Google search shows a lot of people feel 2015. You're entitled to be optimistic, but don't be surprised if your sources are wrong.

 

[das_nut]

Technology moves on. Non-conventional oil is frequently cheap enough to extract, look at Canada for an example.

I'm all for moving off of fossil fuels, and I agree that the rate of oil extraction isn't sustainable in the long term. I'm just not willing to beat the drum for peak oil next year or the year after.

 

[Yokel]

Is it cheap oil? If it's too expensive we won't be touching it. Of course some will claim otherwise, but a Google search shows a lot of people feel 2015. You're entitled to be optimistic, but don't be surprised if your sources are wrong.

Well I'm quoting Palast so it is his sources. The oil reserves in Venezuela and Iraq are sufficiently cheap that OPEC doesn't want them flooding the market so that the price for oil tumbles. Precisely because oil extraction and sales are operated by a cartel and not by a free market is why supplies will last longer than the pessimists think. Supply to consumers will always be limited to significantly less than the reserves that are available.