Putin goes from president to Tzar

[robert99]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/08/12/business/12reuters-russia-kremlin-ivanov.html?_r=0
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Sergei Ivanov himself asked to leave the position of head of the Kremlin administration.

Putin earlier on Friday signed an order removing Ivanov from his job as head of the Kremlin administration and appointed his former deputy, Anton Vaino, in his place.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/13/world/europe/sergei-ivanov-putin-russia.html
“I am pleased with your performance in the areas you supervised,” Mr. Putin said to Mr. Ivanov, who like the president is a veteran of the K.G.B., the Soviet-era security service, and worked with Mr. Putin in St. Petersburg in the early 1990s.

Some viewed Mr. Ivanov as the most recent casualty in what seemed to be an orchestrated plan by Mr. Putin, 63, to install a new generation of “servants” to replace his contemporaries, who might still have had the standing to occasionally question his decisions.

“Sergei Ivanov’s dismissal is a sign of Vladimir Putin’s focus on replacing his old friends at top posts in the executive branch with members of the servant staff, however high-ranking and polished they might be,” said Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst, speaking on Echo of Moscow radio station.

Mr. Putin on Wednesday accused the Ukrainian government of plotting terrorist attacks in Crimea, saying, “Certainly we won’t ignore such things.” Ukraine’s president dismissed the claims as “absurd and cynical,” but Ukrainian troops near Crimea and in southeastern Ukraine were put on high alert. On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the new S-400 air defense missile system had been deployed in Crimea.
At home, as the campaign season starts for Sept. 18 parliamentary elections, Mr. Putin is seen as focused on whipping up enthusiasm for his United Russia party.

 

[robert99]

What lies behind the new Russian threat to Ukraine
What is happening in Crimea now, as some officials in Kiev realise, is much more likely to be manoeuvres to position the Kremlin in a stronger position in a coming diplomatic campaign of attrition. It is not to pave the way for Ukraine to plunge back into war.

 

[robert99]

A good read at -
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...-The-Sultan-and-the-Tsar-need-each-other.html
The battle of Aleppo has changed the parameters of bargaining between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Erdogan, forcing the tsar and the sultan into a position where they need each other equally. Erdogan’s about-face took a different turn in the wake of the military developments in Aleppo, which explains why Putin appeared more cautious when receiving Erdogan in St. Petersburg compared to his guest.

Both men need the special relations they have with the United States, but both need each other to save themselves from their predicaments in Syria and Turkey respectively. Erdogan can play a large role in rescuing Putin from a potential quagmire in Aleppo, amid voices in Russia demanding an end to Russia’s bloody involvement in Syria through accords with Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia towards a political settlement that ends the military attrition.

Likewise, Putin can rescue Erdogan from the global media onslaught and growing international isolation, as he moves to consolidate power and concentrate it in his hands in Turkey. However, the Syrian issue that is crucial for both leaders is not decided only by them both. Rather, they are both constrained and bound by others. Indeed, it was not Erdogan alone who altered the parameters in the battle of Aleppo. Rather, it was an effort with the US-led international coalition along with Gulf countries.

 

[robert99]

Also - http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...s-no-sticks-in-Russia-s-game-with-Turkey.html
... it seems a Turkey that has been weakened by the coup, purges and dramatic changes in its system needs Russia more than ever.
The view from Russia, however, is different. The Russian position in Syria has weakened and it is not as confident as it previously was. It seems that Russia has started to lose control over the situation and made some miscalculations. Why else would Putin ask Russia’s parliament to grant him permission to return a significant military contingent back to the Hmeymim base.

 

[robert99]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/w...-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
Political murders, particularly those accomplished with poisons, are nothing new in Russia, going back five centuries. Nor are they particularly subtle. While typically not traceable to any individuals and plausibly denied by government officials, poisonings leave little doubt of the state’s involvement — which may be precisely the point.

Other countries, notably Israel and the United States, pursue targeted killings, but in a strict counterterrorism context. No other major power employs murder as systematically and ruthlessly as Russia does against those seen as betraying its interests abroad. Killings outside Russia were even given legal sanction by the nation’s Parliament in 2006.

 

[robert99]

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/21082016
(Putin trying to stop the Syrians bombing the Kurds and upsetting the US)

A pro-regime website, Al-Masdar news, claimed that the Russians failed in their mediation efforts to halt the fighting because of the regime refusal to withdraw its forces from Hasakah and Qamishlo, as demanded by the Kurds.

Russian efforts to end the clashes through mediation are still ongoing, despite the failure of their first attempt on Saturday.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...s-agree-on-truce-after-Russia-mediation-.html
Regime forces and Kurdish fighters agreed to a truce in the flashpoint Syrian city of Hasakeh on Sunday after two days of Russian mediation efforts, a military source told AFP.

The northeastern city has been rocked by deadly clashes between US-backed Kurdish forces and fighters loyal to President Bashar al-Assad since Wednesday.

In a bid to calm tensions, a delegation of Russian officials from the coastal Hmeimim military airport arrived in the nearby city of Qamishli on Saturday for talks with the two sides.

By Sunday, the Russian-mediated negotiations reached an agreement, a Syrian military source told AFP.

 

[robert99]

or not ... Kurdish militia launches assault to evict Syrian army from key city of Hasaka
The Kurdish YPG militia launched a major assault on Monday to seize the last government-controlled parts of the northeastern Syrian city of Hasaka after calling on pro-government militias to surrender, Kurdish forces and residents said.

They said Kurdish forces began the offensive after midnight to take the southeastern district of Nashwa, close to where a security compound is located near the governor's office close to the heart of the city.

The YPG denied it had entered into a truce. It distributed leaflets and made loudspeaker calls across the city asking for army personnel and pro-government militias to hand over their weapons or face death.

"To all the elements of the regime and its militias who are besieged in the city you are targeted by our units," leaflets distributed by the YPG said.

"This battle is decided and we will not retreat ... We call on you to give up your weapons or count yourselves dead."

 

[robert99]

Putin appoints long-term ally as new intelligence agency boss | News | DW.COM | 22.09.2016
Former Duma boss Sergei Naryshkin, who is widely reported to have served alongside Putin in the Soviet-era KGB spy agency, is due to take over as head of the SVR. Naryshkin is considered to be a longtime Putin ally.

According to Naryshkin's biography he served at the Soviet embassy in Brussels during the 1980s before working with Putin in the Saint Petersburg mayor's office.

Naryshkin replaces Mikhail Fradkov, days after the ruling United Russia party won legislative elections which led to a new speaker of the house taking over. Fradkov had previously served as prime minister under Putin for four years before taking leadership of the SVR in 2008, and will now move to the board of directors at the state-run Russian Railways.

The announcement came as the latest in a series of changes at the top of Russia's power structure, most notably the departure of longtime ally Sergei Ivanov as the Kremlin's chief of staff.

 

[robert99]

Putin seems to have got all he could hope for - his man is still in power (Assad), the opposition is being crushed, the US are made to look toothless, Iranian allies are happy, and the Israelis are coming to him to ask for protection. If Putin can wangle his way into Egypt's good books it will be game over!

 

[robert99]

The brutal strategy behind Russia's massacres in Syria
The brutal strategy behind Russia's massacres in Syria
By forcing the rebels to unite with the jihadis, Syria's government aims to deprive the world of any acceptable alternatives for leading the country.

Russia has a similar weakness. Syria, its last remaining ally in the Middle East, will remain that way only as long as it is led by the Alawite religious minority. Any democratic Syrian government would prominently feature Sunni Arabs, who are unlikely to look kindly on Russia after its role in the civil war.

Moscow has probably concluded it cannot force a military victory for the Syrian government. Its year-long intervention has focused heavily on Aleppo, but pro-government ground forces are too weak to retake the divided city. Radicalising the opposition, then, can ensure that there is no viable alternative to Syria's current government.

This also accomplishes a diplomatic goal for Russia: making itself crucial for any cease-fire or peace deal. Earlier in the war, it had less sway on the international stage – and perhaps with Damascus – because it played a smaller role than other countries that had intervened. Russia was unwilling to commit ground troops, making it secondary to Iran, which had sent many.

Aleppo has been an opportunity because Russian warplanes are instrumental in maintaining the siege, and because that siege has become one of the war's most terrible calamities. Russia has forced itself to the negotiating table, ensuring it will have a greater say in any outcome.

 

[Mischief]

Putin is a dangerous man.

 

[Second Summer]

I was amused by the way Putin worked around the law preventing him from successive terms as president by serving alternating terms with his longtime ally Medvedev. While Putin was president, Medvedev was prime minister until the next term where they switched and the roles reversed. And so on. Or at least that is how I remember it.
But then Putin managed to repeal the law, and now he's probably president for life. Or at least until the country runs into serious economical problems. Which perhaps seems a bit less likely now that OPEC has decided to scale down production in order to increase oil / gas prices?

 

[robert99]

Syria war: How Moscow’s bombing campaign has paid off for Putin - BBC News
While the Syrian government insists it still wants to recapture all the territory it has lost, Moscow's approach, according to Michael Kofman of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute, is very different.

"Unlike Syria and Iran, Russia has no interest in fighting for territory," he says.

"Moscow had sought to steadily destroy the moderate Syrian opposition on the battlefield, leaving only jihadist forces in play, and lock the US into a political framework of negotiations that would serve beyond the shelf-life of this administration.

"In both respects, it has been successful.

"Ultimately, the Russian goal is to lock in gains for Syria via ceasefires, while slow-rolling the negotiations to the point that true opposition to the Syrian regime expires on the battlefield, leaving no viable alternatives for the West in this conflict come 2017.

"Russia's intervention, seeks to minimise losses, relying largely on the ground power of other actors to do most of the fighting, with its officers embedded in order to glue the military effort together and coordinate air strikes."
...
Put it another way, is there any clear exit strategy for Russia that might enable it to bank its gains and end its losses?

Mr McDermott says: Russia's strategic goals are vague.

"The exit strategy, if there is one appears rooted in strengthening the fighting power of the Syrian army and securing some long-term political settlement that demonstrates Russia has returned as a great power," he says.

Mr Kofman says the "strategic impact" of Russia's intervention still remains in doubt.

"Such gains are readily lost and can prove illusory," he says.

"The Syrian army remains a shambles, Iran is attached to Assad, while Russia is more interested in the grander game with the US.

"And without a political settlement to secure them, these accomplishments can vaporise, as Russian patience and resources become exhausted.

"Russian leadership knows that this could take years and would rather cut a deal while possessing the military advantage."

 

[robert99]

Russia ups the pressure in search for US respect - BBC News
Leonid Radzikhovsky is confident that Russia will not go to war with the US.

"Putin is a megalomaniac, he is convinced he is 10 times better than any western leader. But he's not the kind of person to open a window on the 18th floor, declare 'I can fly' and jump out. He has no plan to drop a hydrogen bomb on Washington. Narcissism is one thing; suicidal tendencies are another. He is not suicidal."

(Meanwhile the trial of Putin's critic Boris Nemtsov has begun Russia: Five men stand trial for Boris Nemtsov murder but "45 of the 59 potential jurors refused to be involved in the Nemtsov case for “personal reasons.”" Jurors Too Scared to Serve in Nemtsov Murder Trial, Lawyer Claims
Nemtsov, a 55-year-old former deputy prime minister, was killed in February last year after being shot at least four times in the back while crossing a bridge near the Kremlin.

At the time, he was working on a report that he said proved Russia's direct involvement in a separatist rebellion that has raged in eastern Ukraine since April 2014.

Five men are currently charged with carrying out his murder: Zaur Dadaev, brothers Anzor and Shagid Gubashev, Tamirlan Eskerkhanov, and Khamzat Bakhaev. A sixth suspect, Beslan Shavanov, killed himself during a confrontation with police.

Nemtsov's report (reported on here Russia 'lost 220 troops' in Ukraine - Nemtsov report - BBC News ) has concluded that 220 Russian soldiers died in two major battles in eastern Ukraine. More on the report and Russian military in the Ukraine at Boris Nemtsov Posthumous Report Claims Over 200 Russian Soldiers in Ukraine - Breitbart
If you can read Russian the actual report is at https://openrussia.org/s/tmp/files/Putin-War1.pdf ) )

 

[robert99]

PressTV-Russia warns of ‘unprecedented’ US threats
The United States is threatening Russia in an “unprecedented” manner, Moscow says, vowing to take “precautionary measures.”

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov addressed Saturday the allegations by US authorities about Russia’s role in hacking attempts, targeting the US 2016 presidential election.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Peskov cited recent remarks by US Vice President Joe Biden, concluding that US threats against Moscow are serious.

“The fact is, US unpredictability and aggression keep growing, and such threats against Moscow and our country’s leadership are unprecedented, because the threat is being announced at the level of the US Vice President,” he said.“Of course, given such an aggressive, unpredictable line, we have to take measures to protect our interests, somehow hedge the risks.”

“Such unpredictability is dangerous for the whole world.”
...
WikiLeaks, which has been blamed by US authorities for working with Russia, reacted to the announcement, suggesting that such a plan is fake.

The transparency website, which has released thousands of emails from the campaign of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead of the November 8 vote, undermined the attempt, saying on Twitter that “If the US ‘clandestine’ pending cyberwar on Russia was serious: 1) it would not have been announced 2) it would be the NSA [National Security Agency] and not the CIA.”