Population growth falling thanks to TV and soap operas

[Second Summer]

India’s declining fertility rate, now only slightly higher than that of the United States, is part of a global trend of lower population growth. Yet the media and many educated Americans have entirely missed this major development, instead sticking to erroneous perceptions about inexorable global population growth that continue to fuel panicked rhetoric about everything from environmental degradation and immigration to food and resource scarcity.

In a recent exercise, most of my students believed that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) was twice that of the United States. Many of my colleagues believed the same. In actuality, it is only 2.5, barely above the estimated U.S. rate of 2.1 in 2011, and essentially the replacement level. (A more recent study now pegs U.S. fertility at 1.93.) Still, from a global perspective, India and the United States fall in the same general fertility category, as can be seen in the map below.

Full article: Population Bomb? So Wrong (The Breakthrough, 8 May 2013)

 

[ledboots]

Interesting article. I thought the television/lower birth rate connection was interesting; I had never heard that before.

"Some scholars have argued that recent fertility decreases in India and elsewhere in the Third World are more specifically linked to one technological innovation: television. The TV hypothesis is well known in the field, discussed, for example, in the LiveScience article on the African population explosion mentioned above. In regard to India, Robert Jensen and Emily Oster argue persuasively that television works this magic mostly by enhancing the social position of women. As they state in their abstract:

This paper explores the effect of the introduction of cable television on women’s status in rural India. Using a three-year, individual-level panel dataset, we find that the introduction of cable television is associated with significant decreases in the reported acceptability of domestic violence towards women and son preference, as well as increases in women’s autonomy and decreases in fertility. We also find suggestive evidence that exposure to cable increases school enrollment for younger children, perhaps through increased participation of women in household decision-making. We argue that the results are not driven by pre-existing differential trends..." from link above.

 

[rainforests1]

Generally the United States, China, and India are three of the countries listed as having a crisis in the future because their population is too high. Will a small drop in the birthrate really change much? Probably not. India's population is simply not sustainable over many generations, so it needs to drop greatly rather than a small drop. The article seemed biased to me. At least the TV has done some good.

 

[ledboots]

Generally the United States, China, and India are three of the countries listed as having a crisis in the future because their population is too high. Will a small drop in the birthrate really change much? Probably not. India's population is simply not sustainable over many generations, so it needs to drop greatly rather than a small drop. The article seemed biased to me. At least the TV has done some good.

A world map showing countries by fertility rate, according to the CIA World Factbook's 2013 data.
7–8 Children purple
6–7 Children pink
5–6 Children red
4–5 Children orange
3–4 Children yellow
2–3 Children green
1–2 Children aqua
0–1 Children blue

 

[Amy SF]

Interesting how much of Africa stands out from the rest of the world (the Duggars notwithstanding). I imagine the reasons for the higher population rates in Africa might be religious and economic, the need for more children to help out as Africa is a primarily agricultural continent.

 

[kibbleforlola]

Actually, the sad truth is that the high birth rate in Africa has little to do with religion or economics; and everything to do with access to education and clean water and childhood immunizations. They have large families not because they need a lot of hands; but because many of those hands don't make it to adulthood.

In short, the places of the world with the highest birthrates also have the highest infant mortality rates.