News Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

[Lou]

Seems like we can get an answer if Finland will apply to be a member of NATO during April. I do think if Finland becomes a memeber, Sweden may come after too. The Nordic defence alliance will be stronger now too. We are too small countries to be alone anyways and we share a long border towards Russia.

If Finland joins NATO, could that be considered "provocative"?

Ok, just looked at a map - That is a long border.

What about Norway?

And didn't Finland lose some territory to the USSR during WW II. Any lingering hard feeling about that (on either side)?

 

[anarchist100]

If Finland joins NATO, could that be considered "provocative"?

Ok, just looked at a map - That is a long border.

What about Norway?

And didn't Finland lose some territory to the USSR during WW II. Any lingering hard feeling about that (on either side)?

This foolish eastward expansion of western influence is the reason there is a war now, if the west had kept their promise to stay away from the Russian border like they said they would there would be no war in Ukraine.

 

[Second Summer]

If Finland joins NATO, could that be considered "provocative"?

Ok, just looked at a map - That is a long border.

Absolutely - Finland was forced to have "neutral status" after the end of WW2 to appease the Soviet Union. See Finlandization.

What about Norway?

Norway is a founding member of NATO. Even though Norway and Russia share a border, the NATO membership has never been a particular issue.

And didn't Finland lose some territory to the USSR during WW II. Any lingering hard feeling about that (on either side)?

Yes, Finland lost the territory they had lost during the Winter War: Parts of Karelia in the south and Salla further north. Additionally, Petsamo in the far north, bordering Norway. That said, Petsamo had been under Russian control before 1920. See also the Moscow Armistice and the Paris Peace Treaties.

East Karelia, even though it belonged to Russia since 1670, was seen by some as the home of ancient Finnic culture, and the idea of annexing it into Finland was particularly popular both after Finland's independence (1917) and during the Continuation War (1941-44).

 

[Second Summer]

This foolish eastward expansion of western influence is the reason there is a war now, if the west had kept their promise to stay away from the Russian border like they said they would there would be no war in Ukraine.

What promise are you talking about? No such agreement was ever made. This is just another Russian myth. You might find this article educational:

Ukraine: the history behind Russia’s claim that Nato promised not to expand to the east

Russia insists that there was an agreement not to expand Nato eastwards after the end of the USSR. History begs to differ.

theconversation.com

Also, you have to understand that most countries in eastern Europe have deep trauma due to what happened to them after WW2 and earlier Russian aggression. You really can't blame them for wanting to join a military alliance that guarantees their independence.

 

[Second Summer]

I'm just reading that Moskva, the Russian flag ship of the Black Sea fleet, has sunk while being towed towards harbour for repairs after a fire. Ukrainian authorities claim it was hit by two of its Neptune missiles. Neptune are brand new Ukrainian-developed anti-ship cruise missiles, based on an older Soviet design.

 

[Mischief]

I'm just reading that Moskva, the Russian flag ship of the Black Sea fleet, has sunk while being towed towards harbour for repairs after a fire. Ukrainian authorities claim it was hit by two of its Neptune missiles. Neptune are brand new Ukrainian-developed anti-ship cruise missiles, based on an older Soviet design.

I believe it's the same ship that was the subject of the "Russian warship, go **** yourself" communication during the first day(s) of the invasion. If so, pretty epic.

 

[Mischief]

From early reports, the Russians only got a few dozen crew members off the ship before it sank. What an immense waste of life this Russian invasion is. There's so much misery in this world w/o humans intentionally adding to it like this.

 

[Lou]

I believe it's the same ship that was the subject of the "Russian warship, go **** yourself" communication during the first day(s) of the invasion. If so, pretty epic.

Yes. that's it.

 

[Lou]

I'm just reading that Moskva, the Russian flag ship of the Black Sea fleet, has sunk while being towed towards harbour for repairs after a fire. Ukrainian authorities claim it was hit by two of its Neptune missiles. Neptune are brand new Ukrainian-developed anti-ship cruise missiles, based on an older Soviet design.

Not sure what to believe. The Russians say it was a fire that started all on its own. The Ukranians say it was missiles. Pictures please.

 

[Lou]

From early reports, the Russians only got a few dozen crew members off the ship before it sank. What an immense waste of life this Russian invasion is. There's so much misery in this world w/o humans intentionally adding to it like this.

The Russians are claiming that the entire crew was evacuated.

 

[Mischief]

Not sure what to believe. The Russians say it was a fire that started all on its own. The Ukranians say it was missiles. Pictures please.

U.S. intelligence sources are confirming it was an "explosion" caused by Ukraine. They are also stating that Russia has repositioned its other ships to be further from shore (which there would be no reason to do if the sinking was caused by an accidental fire).

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/14/ukraine-russian-missile-cruiser-moskva-warship/

 

[Second Summer]

Not sure what to believe. The Russians say it was a fire that started all on its own. The Ukranians say it was missiles. Pictures please.

The Russians are claiming that the entire crew was evacuated.

I can believe most of the crew being successfully evacuated (except those who were killed by the explosion and fire), but I also believe the Ukrainian claim that the sinking was caused by their missiles. How else would they even know the ship was in trouble and be able to report about it so quickly after the incident? I read some speculation that the ship's coordinates had been found by those Ukrainian Turkish-built drones, and then successfully hit by the Neptune missiles.

Anyway, it's a major blow to the Russian navy. Of course, they still have lots of ships in their Black Sea fleet, and can continue firing cruise missiles against Ukrainian coastal targets, but they probably need to move a little further out to sea now.

 

[Second Summer]

Also, as there are now cries for revenge in Russian media, I suppose that is an admission the ship was in fact hit by Ukrainian missiles?

 

[Mischief]

Further confirmation by the U.S. DoD that the ship was struck by Ukranian missiles:

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian warship Moskva with two Neptune missiles, causing it to sink, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday. The confirmation comes after dueling reports in which Ukrainian forces claimed a successful attack on the flagship vessel in Russia’s Black Sea fleet while Russian officials said the ship had experienced a fire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/

 

[PTree15]

From early reports, the Russians only got a few dozen crew members off the ship before it sank. What an immense waste of life this Russian invasion is. There's so much misery in this world w/o humans intentionally adding to it like this.

I keep thinking the same thing. All of this is so unnecessary. It's tragic.

 

[Mischief]

It looks as though the number of crew members lost with the sinking of the Russian warship may be considerably higher than Russia is willing to admit. ‘We need answers’: relatives seek Moskva warship’s missing crew

 

[Lou]

I read that Ukraine has captured so many Russian tanks its now has one of the largest armored forces.

Also according to some other sources, Russian tanks have a "design flat" that makes them very vulnerable. sometimes being called mobile coffins.

 

[Second Summer]

Looks like Russia's war has been taken to a new level where Putin and others in the regime are now openly threatening with the use of nuclear weapons. This is probably as serious as the Cuba crisis in the 60s.

After Putin's mobilisation order, Russian men in the order of several hundred thousand (one estimate says 260,000) have fled the country.

And the recent attacks on the two Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea are widely attributed to Russia, although spokesmen from the regime deny the allegations. These pipelines were not in use, although still filled with gas, so the situation is not as serious for consumers of the gas, although the attacks are likely to push the prices up even more.

Meanwhile, unknown drones have been observed near Norwegian oil & gas rigs in the North Sea. These rigs supply both the UK and the European continent with gas through long pipelines which are as vulnerable to attacks as the ones in the Baltic Sea.

 

[beancounter]

Looks like Russia's war has been taken to a new level where Putin and others in the regime are now openly threatening with the use of nuclear weapons. This is probably as serious as the Cuba crisis in the 60s.

After Putin's mobilisation order, Russian men in the order of several hundred thousand (one estimate says 260,000) have fled the country.

And the recent attacks on the two Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea are widely attributed to Russia, although spokesmen from the regime deny the allegations. These pipelines were not in use, although still filled with gas, so the situation is not as serious for consumers of the gas, although the attacks are likely to push the prices up even more.

Meanwhile, unknown drones have been observed near Norwegian oil & gas rigs in the North Sea. These rigs supply both the UK and the European continent with gas through long pipelines which are as vulnerable to attacks as the ones in the Baltic Sea.

If Putin actually uses nukes, he's a fool. Even if they are "only" tactical nukes, he will make Ukraine a wasteland, and potentially poison Russian people, land and assets near Ukraine for generations. (Moscow is just a little more than 700 miles away from Ukraine.)

This reminds me of restaurants and airlines (back in the day) when they thought smoke from a smoking section would be completely isolated from the non smoking section.... Russia will ultimately be effected by any nukes that are dropped on Ukraine.

And allow me to wade into the deep end - The U.S. has controls over its nuke launches, but other countries may not, so it's possible there could be a multi country launch of nukes around the world triggered by Russian nukes.

 

[Second Summer]

I forgot about this thread. I'm a news junkie, so I've been following developments closely. A lot of things have happened since last time we posted here.

At least it looks like Russia won't be using nukes, so that's a good thing. However, they are again ramping up their missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

I guess the big question right now is whether western countries, especially the US, will continue their support of Ukraine with weapons and ammo to the same extent as before, or whether the support will dry up. If the latter, that will likely be catastrophic for Ukraine. Some politicians, especially in the US, seem to think sending weapons to Israel is somehow more important.

One glimmer of hope for Ukraine at the moment is that those F-16s they were promised will be delivered in the near future.