I’m worried we’re going to have the same scenario in 2024…
US Politics-2021
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I'm not taking anything for granted like I did in 2015. I think most of us liberals have learned a lesson. However I'm not that worried this time around. Although I guess there are only like a million things that could go wrong.
Veganite once said I could come live with him till I got settled in BC.
Death by Government 20x More Common than Death by Criminal...
Why do so many people assume the creation of state-backed gun-control laws make the world safer? Historically, death by government is a more real threat.
freemansperspective.com
If we were betting today I'd put my money on Trump for 2024...either another electoral college squeaker or through state Republicans throwing their delegates his way despite losing the states popular vote.
A lot could happen between now and then, but not all democrats are serious about election rights and democratic reform, and pretty much all Republicans are serious about power by any means possible.
Jamie in Chile
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I think Trump, if he runs, will likely struggle. Hopefully Texas will be realistically in play for the democrats which, if so, would be nice. The Republicans might have to expend more effort to try to hold on to that than in the past, and that could hurt them, and they could even lose it, or am I dreaming?
Climate change denialism in 2024 won't fly as well as it did in 2016.
I think the aftermath of what happened in the US capitol will still hurt him.
I think he got votes in 2016 from people that didn't like Hillary Clinton as perceived him as the lesser of two evils. Some of those could vote against him or not vote if the Democrats put up a decent candidate.
I think he also got votes from people who, perhaps best captured in the famous Michael Moore video, just voted for him as a frustrated f*** you to the establishment. Some of those people will, after seeing what he did for years, have woken up with a hangover and will have second thoughts.
I know that none of this will matter to most Trump fans, or even most Republicans, or even perhaps most conservatives. But we only need a few percent of moderates and centrists to make these kind of judgments for Trump to lose.
I am also hopeful that if Trump runs in 2024 that the Democrats will end up with more funding from business than they ever had in the past.
Of course, a lot depends on what candidate the democrats pick - whether Biden or someone else. If they can't get a strong candidate, or their candidate gets hit with a scandal just before the election, or the economy tanks for some reason just before the election, then anything is possible.
So I'd still give Trump 40% chance if he runs.
Climate change denialism in 2024 won't fly as well as it did in 2016.
I think the aftermath of what happened in the US capitol will still hurt him.
I think he got votes in 2016 from people that didn't like Hillary Clinton as perceived him as the lesser of two evils. Some of those could vote against him or not vote if the Democrats put up a decent candidate.
I think he also got votes from people who, perhaps best captured in the famous Michael Moore video, just voted for him as a frustrated f*** you to the establishment. Some of those people will, after seeing what he did for years, have woken up with a hangover and will have second thoughts.
I know that none of this will matter to most Trump fans, or even most Republicans, or even perhaps most conservatives. But we only need a few percent of moderates and centrists to make these kind of judgments for Trump to lose.
I am also hopeful that if Trump runs in 2024 that the Democrats will end up with more funding from business than they ever had in the past.
Of course, a lot depends on what candidate the democrats pick - whether Biden or someone else. If they can't get a strong candidate, or their candidate gets hit with a scandal just before the election, or the economy tanks for some reason just before the election, then anything is possible.
So I'd still give Trump 40% chance if he runs.
Jamie in Chile
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I also have a fantasy that a frustrated conservative will run as a third party candidate. A genuine conservative that believes in conservatism more than Republicanism, understand that the modern Republican party is in a bad state and not respectful of democracy, and is happy to run against the Republicans because they believe that Trump is just as bad as a democratic candidate so they've nothing to lose by potentially handing the democrats victory. It's not very likely I suppose, but for now I can dream!
Liz Cheney? Kasich?
I can see that, but I really really want a progressive to stomp out the repubs AND the neo-libs! (you know, like how Bernie should have been allowed to do...IMO)
Jamie in Chile
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Mitt Romney was the only name that came to my mind as I wrote that but I don't have a good enough knowledge of conservative figures to really know.
It won´t be any of the top most powerful and influential Republicans.
It could be a non-politician, a big business figure. The motivation could be a conservative who is torn between voting Republican to vote for conservative values and voting democrat to vote for democracy and climate change action. Such a person might be running to try and shock and wake up the Republicans into reforming which might be what they really want. That´s the theory, anyway.
It needs to be someone who can get 5% or more of the vote perhaps.
By the way, in either 2015 or 2016, there was a TV debate with the Republican candidates, there were about 10 of them at that time, and the presenter said raise your hand if you won´t commit to support the Republican candidate and won´t promise not to run a third party campaign (or something like that) and Trump raised his hand.
To me, it looked like he was threatening to run against the Republicans to make people vote for him to avoid that possibility. He got some boos.
He wasn´t saying he would run as a third party candidate if he didn´t come through the Republican process. He was just refusing to rule it out.
Would be awesome if that blows up his face and someone does it against him. But got to be honest, this all feels like wishful thinking.
Actually, I´m not sure that there will be much of a Republican primary process this time. You could see Trump being by far the strongest candidate and perhaps just 1 or 2 minor figures with little chance going against him.
It won´t be any of the top most powerful and influential Republicans.
It could be a non-politician, a big business figure. The motivation could be a conservative who is torn between voting Republican to vote for conservative values and voting democrat to vote for democracy and climate change action. Such a person might be running to try and shock and wake up the Republicans into reforming which might be what they really want. That´s the theory, anyway.
It needs to be someone who can get 5% or more of the vote perhaps.
By the way, in either 2015 or 2016, there was a TV debate with the Republican candidates, there were about 10 of them at that time, and the presenter said raise your hand if you won´t commit to support the Republican candidate and won´t promise not to run a third party campaign (or something like that) and Trump raised his hand.
To me, it looked like he was threatening to run against the Republicans to make people vote for him to avoid that possibility. He got some boos.
He wasn´t saying he would run as a third party candidate if he didn´t come through the Republican process. He was just refusing to rule it out.
Would be awesome if that blows up his face and someone does it against him. But got to be honest, this all feels like wishful thinking.
Actually, I´m not sure that there will be much of a Republican primary process this time. You could see Trump being by far the strongest candidate and perhaps just 1 or 2 minor figures with little chance going against him.
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Chryssie
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Trumpism is all about smashing the political rules and grabbing power by any means possible. Republicans are engaged in flat-out voter suppression. They're putting election administration into the hands of partisan loyalists. They're attempting to rid themselves of the only two Republicans in congress who thought a violent insurrection to overturn an election was even worth investigating. They're actively undermining trust in our electoral system, feeding their constituents the lie that any loss is inherently illegitimate. Many of these same constituents are armed to the teeth and fantasize of civil war.
Bidens legislative record, climate denialism and the capitol riot may move the needle a little bit, but Republicans are taking a hammer the whole dial.
Nothing matters more than protecting voting rights and making sure Republicans can't overturn the results. If Trump, his loyalists, and his spineless enablers can steal the election they will.
This only sounds like alarmism because we're used to taking the durability and stability of our democracy for granted.
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Jamie in Chile
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I agree that Trump is anti-democratic.
The US democracy does seem to be biased in favour of Republicans but some of that (electoral college, senate composition) seems to be good luck in addition to the malicious nefariousness. I´ve read that the Republicans are worse at gerrymandering (even though Democrats also do it).
I actually don´t know much about voter suppression; need to learn more about that.
The US democracy does seem to be biased in favour of Republicans but some of that (electoral college, senate composition) seems to be good luck in addition to the malicious nefariousness. I´ve read that the Republicans are worse at gerrymandering (even though Democrats also do it).
I actually don´t know much about voter suppression; need to learn more about that.
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Trump declined boy's ‘vegan’ challenge because he feared losing 'even one brain cell': former staffer
Former president Donald Trump declined a young boy's challenge to go "vegan" for a month because he feared losing "even one brain cell," according to a new book from former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. "On another occasion around the new year (in 2020), a young boy started...
www.rawstory.com
Uh-huh.
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Can't resist.Trump declined boy's ‘vegan’ challenge because he feared losing 'even one brain cell': former staffer
Former president Donald Trump declined a young boy's challenge to go "vegan" for a month because he feared losing "even one brain cell," according to a new book from former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. "On another occasion around the new year (in 2020), a young boy started...
Uh-huh.
If he had one brain cell it would die of loneliness.
Jamie in Chile
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It´s looking shaky for the budget reconciliation bill, which is the only major federal option on the table to help fight climate change for now, but also contains many other things. It creates an electricity standard and some electric vehicle support and if it passes will change the USA´s approach on climate change from very bad almost total denialism to just fairly bad, which is still a significant improvement.
it´s beginning to look like this bill probably is in the interests of the majority of Americans, and is supported by the majority of Americans: https://publicconsultation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/BudgetReconciliation2022_Slides.pdf
Groups funded by major corporate interests are working to kill off the bill, as discussed here:
www.theatlantic.com
Apple, Amazon and Google for example are members of the Business Round Table, which means all of them are indirectly funding the attempts to kill off the bill. Here is the full list of companies that are providing such financial support to kill it:
In defence of some of the big tech companies like Apple and Google, they do politically give about 80% to Democrats and only 10% to Republicans. So that will help on climate change.
Looks like Manchin and Sinema, the democratic senators, are the difficult ones that almost certainly won´t agree to a $3.5 trillion bill but might agree to $1.5-$2 trillion.
Something has gone wrong when the fate of the US´s climate policy comes down to someone (Manchin) that owns million of dollars of stocks in coal.
The US political power has been captured by fossil fuel interests, and more broadly corporate power, and is not democratic. While it´s worthy to try and get this bill through, there also needs to be a movement for broader change.
it´s beginning to look like this bill probably is in the interests of the majority of Americans, and is supported by the majority of Americans: https://publicconsultation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/BudgetReconciliation2022_Slides.pdf
Groups funded by major corporate interests are working to kill off the bill, as discussed here:
Big Business Is Bankrolling an Effort to Kill the Democratic Climate Bill
The trade group that represents Apple, Walmart, Nike, and dozens of other companies is trying to kneecap the U.S.’s final chance to meet its 2025 climate goals.
Apple, Amazon and Google for example are members of the Business Round Table, which means all of them are indirectly funding the attempts to kill off the bill. Here is the full list of companies that are providing such financial support to kill it:
In defence of some of the big tech companies like Apple and Google, they do politically give about 80% to Democrats and only 10% to Republicans. So that will help on climate change.
Looks like Manchin and Sinema, the democratic senators, are the difficult ones that almost certainly won´t agree to a $3.5 trillion bill but might agree to $1.5-$2 trillion.
Something has gone wrong when the fate of the US´s climate policy comes down to someone (Manchin) that owns million of dollars of stocks in coal.
The US political power has been captured by fossil fuel interests, and more broadly corporate power, and is not democratic. While it´s worthy to try and get this bill through, there also needs to be a movement for broader change.
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Some good insights but I would like to point out your statement, "something has gone wrong..." is misleading. for something to go wrong - it implies that at one time it was alright. It's never been alright.
Same thing with your, " been captured". Its been that way since at least 1872
One may wonder what ever happened to the whole "by the people, for the people", thing. Just keep in mind that when that was written they had a different definition of "people".
Chryssie
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I saw a big pickup truck in my apartment complex with this bumper sticker "Trump DeSantis 2024." 
Though Ron says this:
www.businessinsider.com
Though Ron says this:Gov. Ron DeSantis says he's not considering a presidential run because he's busy 'trying to make sure people are not supporting critical race theory'
DeSantis told the Fox News host Sean Hannity that he's not considering a presidential run in 2024, saying he's focused on "stuff going on in Florida."
www.businessinsider.com
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