Ukraine

[das_nut]

Obama’s “Catastrophic Defeat” in Ukraine » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names
The Ukranian army is getting beat very badly according to this. Western leaders can't be too happy.

Well duh. Russia has invaded them. Russia may be reaffirming the idea that all of Russian history can be summed up in the phrase "and then it got worse", but it still is vastly larger than Ukraine.

I wouldn't be surprised if Western countries get involved in this soon.

I would be a little surprised. Sanctions seem to be the order of the day. Russia bullying its neighbors and creating a neo-USSR seems to be the tolerated by the west. It would take a drastic change, and unless Ukraine does something desperate (destroying its own oil pipelines might work), I don't see the west doing more than economic actions.

Barring that, it'll take another episode or two of Russia militarily tearing apart a neighbor. And I fear that will happen.

 

[das_nut]

Here's what I don't get - why no mention of all the weird stuff that has happened in Russia past and present?

Russian soldiers in Ukraine, secret burials of paratroopers in Russia, "Ukrainian" nazis in the Russian news that speak remarkably good Russian without a Russian accent, leaked election results showing that Crimea didn't want to join Russia, it's suspicious.

And that's just the present. The recent past has included poisoning of both a previous Ukrainian leader and an ex-KGB dissident. Then there was the "sugar" found in Ryazan. Plus elections that don't pass mathematical rigor.

 

[yakherder]

Not sure why it's not shown. Perhaps it'll be labelled as unsubstantiated conspiracy theory, perhaps it is. Either way it's irrelevant because it's proving a point that at this stage is already obvious. Russia is set on Ukraine. All the evidence of foul play in the world isn't going to make a bunch of complacent, idealistic, war weary, in the midst of a recession nations suddenly find the resolve to stand in front of Russia and scream "You shall not pass!" They'd rather throw rocks (little rocks) from the sidelines.

Russia, for its part, is making the opposition look like fools. They're playing this game well, and the most powerful global alliance in the history of the world is just standing back going "trade leverage didn't work, that's all we got. Crap." The cynic in me can't help but respect Russia for that.

 

[das_nut]

I agree with that, I'm just wondering why those who think this is some huge European conspiracy appear to dismiss any oddness about Russia's actions, past and present.

Non-conspiracy theories aside, Russia's actions currently are rather odd. It makes me think that the country is unstable, since Russia is pushing short-term gains at the expense of its long-term relationships.

 

[yakherder]

Access to Crimea is more important to Russia's national security than many realize. Replacing a leader who was sympathetic to this need with one who is not put Russia in a desperate position.

The global response has worsened the situation. Ukraine's agricultural capacity has essentially become a necessity for Russia in the wake of the sanctions it incurred as a result of taking Crimea. Without being able to depend on foreign trade, taking Ukraine is the only rational choice.

You take food from a bear it's not gonna just sit there and starve. It's gonna go look for more food. Hate to sound like a broken record in all the threads but... cause/effect. It's always in action, and should always be taken into consideration.

 

[das_nut]

Access to Crimea is more important to Russia's national security than many realize. Replacing a leader who was sympathetic to this need with one who is not put Russia in a desperate position.

Russia already had the base in Crimea for the foreseeable future.

The global response has worsened the situation. Ukraine's agricultural capacity has essentially become a necessity for Russia in the wake of the sanctions it incurred as a result of taking Crimea. Without being able to depend on foreign trade, taking Ukraine is the only rational choice.

The US and EU did nothing to target agricultural trade. It was Putin's retaliatory sanctions that targeted food imports from the US and EU.

If Russia now needs Ukraine's agricultural capacity to make up that deficit, I'm not seeing how that was a sane move by Russia.

 

[yakherder]

They were leasing a base. The overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych as a precursor to moving closer to the European and away from Russian interdependence compromised that and other agreements.

And though the sanctions did not initially directly threaten Russia's food imports, they did threaten it's economy to the point that it was forced to acknowledge the need to both diversify its trade dependencies and to position itself to be independent, if necessary. As it stands, Russia cannot provide for itself. A move to change that might seem insane from the outside looking in, but from the perspective of a Russian not wanting to be subject to the whims of its neighbors who don't necessarily have its best interests in mind, the move was not irrational.

 

[das_nut]

They were leasing a base. The overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych as a precursor to moving closer to the European and away from Russian interdependence compromised that and other agreements.

Any evidence of this? It's quite possible for a major nation to have a base even if the country is hostile to it - Guantanamo Bay, for example.

And though the sanctions did not initially directly threaten Russia's food imports, they did threaten it's economy to the point that it was forced to acknowledge the need to both diversify its trade dependencies and to position itself to be independent, if necessary. As it stands, Russia cannot provide for itself. A move to change that might seem insane from the outside looking in, but from the perspective of a Russian not wanting to be subject to the whims of its neighbors who don't necessarily have its best interests in mind, the move was not irrational.

Except that throwing the region into chaos isn't the best way to encourage trade. It's a **** poor way, especially when Russia's engaged in warfare with the nation that it relies on to export much of its fossil fuels.

 

[rainforests1]

If countries like Ukraine and Greece need help in the future and other countries can't afford to help them, what happens? Do they just simply collapse at some point?

 

[ledboots]

If countries like Ukraine and Greece need help in the future and other countries can't afford to help them, what happens? Do they just simply collapse at some point?

If history proves correct, then yes.

 

[das_nut]

If history proves correct, then yes.

Trick is not to let that collapse spread.

It ain't always an easy thing to do.

 

[rainforests1]

Hilarious listening to that. $5 billion. You'd think the government has a big interest in Ukraine, but why?

 

[das_nut]

$5 billion? So we've spent about 0.1% of the federal budget in Ukraine?

But wait, the DailyKos claims that story is wrong.

According to them: "However, when she talks of the $5 billion, it is money that the US has spent since 1991 aiding Ukraine since they became independent building up its democratic institutions."

Since that is over 20+ years, on average, we'd spent less than about $250/million a year. If that held true for this year, that's 0.01% of the federal budget. Or, to put it another way, if my partner and I eat out at the raw, vegan restaurant once a year, spend about $35 there, we'd have spent a larger percentage of our budget eating out, than the US did in Ukraine.

 

[rainforests1]

$5 billion? So we've spent about 0.1% of the federal budget in Ukraine?

But wait, the DailyKos claims that story is wrong.

According to them: "However, when she talks of the $5 billion, it is money that the US has spent since 1991 aiding Ukraine since they became independent building up its democratic institutions."

Since that is over 20+ years, on average, we'd spent less than about $250/million a year. If that held true for this year, that's 0.01% of the federal budget. Or, to put it another way, if my partner and I eat out at the raw, vegan restaurant once a year, spend about $35 there, we'd have spent a larger percentage of our budget eating out, than the US did in Ukraine.

It's more than just the money. The media and government have both made Ukraine into a much bigger deal than it should be. Ignoring the much more important things while focusing so much attention on Putin.


Australia’s Misguided Interests » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names
Australia is sending military advisors. Along with those exercises the United States is planning in Ukraine, it gives me reason to believe my prediction that Western countries will get involved and help Ukraine's military will happen. Quietly, of course.

Peak oil notes - Sept 4
Russia's ruble and stock market have tanked. Assuming this is related to the sanctions, Western governments should be proud of themselves. They probably are.

 

[Second Summer]

Did you guys read about the planned joint military exercises between Ukraine and the US in western Ukraine? Someone in the west seems to finally show some resolve.

Also, Ukraine and the rebels just signed another cease fire.
Ukraine ceasefire holds so far as Poroshenko orders halt at dusk | World news | The Guardian

 

[das_nut]

It's more than just the money. The media and government have both made Ukraine into a much bigger deal than it should be. Ignoring the much more important things while focusing so much attention on Putin.

Do you really not understand why a decent chunk of the world thinks this is a big deal?

1. World's attention was already on Russia after the winter Olympics.
2. Russia invaded Crimea shortly thereafter.
3. Russia supported the separatists which most likely shot down an airliner (and the media goes nuts over airline disasters anyways).
4. Europe gets a lot of their natural gas through Ukraine.
5. A decent chunk of Europe has living history involving Soviet invasion - Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland.
6. In the case of the Baltic states, such an invasion was preluded by Soviet shenanigans.
7. In the case of Poland, the USSR was acting to "protect" ethnic Ukrainians and Belarussians since Poland was currently under attack by Nazi Germany (which, of course, Nazi Germany did after the USSR and Nazi Germany came to an agreement about how to divide Poland between them). After the Russian invasion,
8. With the modern invasion of Crimea by Russia, Russia has effectively ****** all over the
Budapest Memorandum. This has repercussions for all future nuclear disarmament, both around the world, and with Ukraine's previous abandonment of nuclear weapons. Ukrainian politicians have openly talked about reacquiring nuclear weapon capability.
9. Europe has fought multiple devastating wars that have engaged most of the continent over territorial ambitions. Russia currently occupies parts of three sovereign countries in Europe in direct defiance of the legitimate government.

 

[rainforests1]

Do you really not understand why a decent chunk of the world thinks this is a big deal?

1. World's attention was already on Russia after the winter Olympics.
2. Russia invaded Crimea shortly thereafter.
3. Russia supported the separatists which most likely shot down an airliner (and the media goes nuts over airline disasters anyways).
4. Europe gets a lot of their natural gas through Ukraine.
5. A decent chunk of Europe has living history involving Soviet invasion - Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland.
6. In the case of the Baltic states, such an invasion was preluded by Soviet shenanigans.
7. In the case of Poland, the USSR was acting to "protect" ethnic Ukrainians and Belarussians since Poland was currently under attack by Nazi Germany (which, of course, Nazi Germany did after the USSR and Nazi Germany came to an agreement about how to divide Poland between them). After the Russian invasion,
8. With the modern invasion of Crimea by Russia, Russia has effectively ****** all over the
Budapest Memorandum. This has repercussions for all future nuclear disarmament, both around the world, and with Ukraine's previous abandonment of nuclear weapons. Ukrainian politicians have openly talked about reacquiring nuclear weapon capability.
9. Europe has fought multiple devastating wars that have engaged most of the continent over territorial ambitions. Russia currently occupies parts of three sovereign countries in Europe in direct defiance of the legitimate government.

Three airline disasters happened in one week. The one that the Russians MAY have caused(the one that has oddly been ignored lately) was the one with far more media attention than the other two. The media wasn't going nuts about the other two. Nice try. As an American this has virtually no impact whatsoever on our lives. Europeans can worry about Russia, while we can worry about something like this:
Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending
Oil companies are cutting back. This happened right around the same time Crimea was occupied. As far as I know the Wall Street Journal was the only mainstream source to acknowledge this is happening. If we acknowledged this is happening, we'd have to do something about it, like build a good public transportation system. Much more important than Ukraine and therefore should be talked about more.

 

[rainforests1]

The Limits of Sanctions on Russia » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names
This says it will cost at least $50 billion to bailout Ukraine. Is it the banks that bailout countries? I thought US banks are in better shape than Europe's, so shouldn't we be the ones bailing them out? With all of the money we waste, $50 billion shouldn't be hard to come up with.

 

[das_nut]

Three airline disasters happened in one week. The one that the Russians MAY have caused(the one that has oddly been ignored lately) was the one with far more media attention than the other two.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 had 298 dead, and was shot down.
TransAsia Airways Flight 222 had 48 dead.
Air Algérie Flight 5017 had 112 dead.

Guess what will be the bigger news story? More deaths, and it was shot down.

As an American this has virtually no impact whatsoever on our lives.

A conflict in Europe has never affected Americans, what-so-ever. Especially not within living memory.

 

[beancounter]

Especially not within living memory.

You're walking on the edge with that statement. An 18 year old soldier would be in his late eighties by now, ...if he's still alive. Within 20-30 years, you won't be able to say that anymore.