UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

[Second Summer]

By the way, slightly off-topic, but isn't Theresa May looking more and more like Maggie Thatcher every day? She seems pretty ruthless.

 

[Second Summer]

Writing in The Independent today, Ashoka Mody, a former deputy director of the IMF's European department, is arguing that the vote to leave the EU has been a success, and that this success is likely to continue:

But after a brief fall right after the vote, stock markets gave a “thumbs up.”

The FTSE 100, which includes the major multinational companies and even the broader-based FTSE 250 indicated early that things were likely to be okay.

Since then, the economic data has borne out that early stock market cheer. GDP growth in the quarter after Brexit exceeded not only the grim predictions around the referendum vote but exceeded even the forecasts from earlier in the year when Brexit was not considered a risk.

He also talks about how the fall in the value of the British pound is a good thing (he says it was greatly overvalued), and a decline in property prices. He says that it will be a good thing (!) for the economy if some banks flee the country as they were fuelling the finance-property price nexus, and the banks have drawn talented employees into flipping financial assets.

More: The economic consensus was horribly wrong and here are the real reasons Brexit is succeeding

 

[Second Summer]

I'm a bit concerned about the talk about a hard Brexit. I'm not sure it's in the people's interest that all ties with the EU are cut, because then the next argument to enter into the debate will be that the UK needs to stay competitive and attractive to businesses, and therefore we'll have to compensate for the loss of access to the EU market by removing laws to protect workers and their rights, environment protection laws, consumer protection laws, food safety laws, animal welfare laws and so on. There will be a push to create a free marketeer's paradise. And while Trump has said he's opposed to the T-TIP (Transatlantic trade and investment partnership), I wouldn't be surprised if it were put back on the table again, in some revised form.

These concerns are growing in me with recent developments:

The threat that Britain might soon become a “corporate tax haven” – issued by its chancellor, Philip Hammond – revealed a fundamental truth about Brexit. This is not just a decision about the UK’s relationship with the European Union; it is also about what kind of economic and social model the UK will have in the future.

More: How a 'tax haven' Brexit threatens the UK's social model

 

[Andy_T]

By the way, slightly off-topic, but isn't Theresa May looking more and more like Maggie Thatcher every day? She seems pretty ruthless.

Who would have guessed?

 

[Joe]

I am wondering what anyone thinks of the effect of the court ruling that Parliament would have to vote to authorize Brexit.
Will this ruling really change anything? Any chance that Parliament will block Brexit? Or is this vote mainly just a technicality?

 

[Second Summer]

I am wondering what anyone thinks of the effect of the court ruling that Parliament would have to vote to authorize Brexit.
Will this ruling really change anything? Any chance that Parliament will block Brexit? Or is this vote mainly just a technicality?

I don't think Parliament will block Brexit, because we had a referendum and a small, yet clear majority of the electorate opted for leaving the EU. So that part has been decided, and MPs who oppose the will of the people run the risk of tarnishing both their own and their party's reputation. However, 51.9% is not a huge majority, so I don't really think the government has been given a mandate for a so-called "hard Brexit". Therefore, perhaps MPs will vote to add conditions on what sort of Brexit we get.

 

[shyvas]

I don't think Parliament will block Brexit, because we had a referendum and a small, yet clear majority of the electorate opted for leaving the EU. So that part has been decided, and MPs who oppose the will of the people run the risk of tarnishing both their own and their party's reputation. However, 51.9% is not a huge majority, so I don't really think the government has been given a mandate for a so-called "hard Brexit". Therefore, perhaps MPs will vote to add conditions on what sort of Brexit we get.

Yes, the majority of the British population voted to leave. So, I also agree that it would be against the MPs' interest to vote against the will of the people.

 

[shyvas]

Brexit bill clears first hurdle in Commons

 

[Moll Flanders]

I just want to get on with it at this point!

I have been wondering for a while why the toffs in Britain want to leave the EU? Is it for tax reasons? I don't know any people who belong to this mysterious "elite" we hear and read about so I don't have anyone to ask.

 

[AeryFairy]

I just want to get on with it at this point!

I have been wondering for a while why the toffs in Britain want to leave the EU? Is it for tax reasons? I don't know any people who belong to this mysterious "elite" we hear and read about so I don't have anyone to ask.

This might be a touch sceptical of me, but there's a lot of personal connections between the 'elite' - if they don't know each other personally then they know someone who does, or they went to the same school a few years apart, or whatever else. That, combined with money, gets you a whole lot of government influence. The less external meddling factors you have, the more laws you can pass which work in your favour.

And, of course, they've got enough wealth to weather any potential negative economic side effects.

 

[Moll Flanders]

I was thinking all through the lead-up to the referendum that it seemed like a lot of working-class people wanted to leave, along with very rich Tories. These people, a lot who have inherited wealth and are landowners, are the real elites in the UK and they are not exactly known for caring about the needs of the working-class. It seemed weird to me that they were on the same side of the argument.

ETA - Some good news, I just saw that the Bank of England says it expects UK GDP to grow at 2% in 2017 - up from a previous estimate in November of 1.4%.

 

[Andy_T]

Brexit is not the high point of democracy – it's the greatest fraud perpetrated in British politics

 

[Andy_T]

I was thinking all through the lead-up to the referendum that it seemed like a lot of working-class people wanted to leave, along with very rich Tories. These people, a lot who have inherited wealth and are landowners, are the real elites in the UK and they are not exactly known for caring about the needs of the working-class. It seemed weird to me that they were on the same side of the argument.

Well, to me it starts to make sense when I look at the fact that the first ("elites") are the owners of the British tabloid newspapers and the latter (working class people) are the consumers of said publications...

This was a reply to the infamous "enemies ot the people" Daily Mail headline ...

 

[Moll Flanders]

Trump would get blocked from speaking in Commons for his 'racism and sexism', says Speaker - Politics Live | Politics | The Guardian

It makes me laugh that so many people are raving about DT coming here for a visit. If he will help us with Brexit negotiations I wouldn't care if the Queen carries him around on piggyback. I'm sure she will cope with him, she has met with a lot worse people than him.

I've made my peace with Brexit at the moment so I'm trying not to think about it too much as I will get angry again. I remember seeing Iain Duncan Smith being interviewed on the night just before the result was announced and he was saying that he thought that all the people living on council estates were coming out to vote for Brexit. He was smirking and almost laughing when he said that. The elites must think they are very clever.

 

[Joe]

Brexit Could Take 10 Years, Kinnock Says

[I lost the bleeping URL, and now I can't find it. It was on the BBC site.]

But how could it take 10 years? Isn't there a 2 year deadline after Article 50 is invoked?

 

[Second Summer]

Brexit Could Take 10 Years, Kinnock Says

[I lost the bleeping URL, and now I can't find it. It was on the BBC site.]

But how could it take 10 years? Isn't there a 2 year deadline after Article 50 is invoked?

What the government wants instead of the EU membership is a free trade agreement, like Switzerland and now Canada (CETA). Other bilateral agreements might also be needed. Free trade agreements typically usually take a lot longer than 2 years to negotiate and then approve in national parliaments. And yes, "article 50" of the Lisbon treaty says a country has 2 years to get out. So I'm not sure what they'll do in the 8 year gap. Maybe the UK can remain a member of just the EEA, like Norway, so able to continue trading in the single market, and people can continue to migrate in and out, but without the UK having any say on laws and regulations?

 

[Second Summer]

That said, it's not clear that the EU will continue to exist as we know it today if the wave of populist right-wing demagogy washes over the continent the same way it did in the US. There is a parliament election in the Netherlands on 15. March. Then there are presidential elections in France on 23. April (second round on 7. May), and the German federal election on 23. September.

Edit: This could in fact be The Final Countdown for Europe ....
Edit 2: I said that because Youtube happened to be playing that song. Next, it went on to play Winds of Change ...! Quite a different kind of change than was envisioned back then

 

[Joe]

BBC Radio 4 has recently broadcast a 10-part guide to Brexit.

It appears that all these programs are available now through the BBC website.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08ffww9

Brexit; A Guide For The Perplexed
Radio 4
2017-02-06/2017-02-17

As the UK prepares to begin leaving the EU, what are the key deals to be done? Chris Morris cuts through the jargon to discover how everyone's lives could change.

Presented by Chirs Morris
Produced by Shabnam Grewal and Chris Bowlby
Edited by Hugh Levinson

101 - Who Are We Negotiating With
2017-02-06
When the UK negotiates Brexit, who will be on the other side of the table? The answer's complex. Chris Morris reports on the complicated range of interests on the EU side who will have a say in settling a deal on Britain's departure - with domestic elections across the Continent playing a key role. And find out why there could be scorpions....

102 - The Cost Of The Divorce
2017-02-07
How much will it cost the UK to leave the European Union? Chris Morris investigates with the help of a top divorce lawyer and an expert on the financial facts. He draws up a list of assets to be divvied up and the ongoing maintenance payments which may need to be made. It could add up to around £50 or £60 billion and the EU seems determined to extract payment. Will it all end in tears?

103 - What If You're Living On The Wrong Side Of The Channel
2017-02-08
How could things change for British expats and EU nationals in the UK after Brexit? Chris Morris meets a community worker who advises Poles living in Britain and takes part in a radio phone-in on a station which broadcasts to British expats in Europe. It seems that people on both sides of the channel share similar views. Some are worried about their pensions and healthcare while others think little will change. The experts appear to think a deal will be done to protect both the migrants and the expats but what of future generations who may want to live across the channel ? That's when things become even more unclear.

104 - The Cliff Edge
2017-02-09
Could Brexit send UK trade off a cliff edge? Chris Morris discovers what's at stake as the UK extracts itself from the EU. What if there's no deal on new trade arrangements when Brexit happens?

105 - What About EU Subsidies
2017-02-10
Chris Morris takes a road trip through Cornwall to find out if Brexit would mean the loss of nearly half a billion pounds in subsidies, and if so, how the region would cope. Cornwall is one of the poorest areas in England and so qualifies for EU regional subsidies. Its people also voted overwhelmingly for Brexit. Chris meets a pasty maker who benefited from subsidies and voted to remain, while his friend, a dairy farmer, voted to leave. He asks voices from business, academia and local government what they expect when the EU subsidy programmes stop - and their view of the UK government's pledge to maintain similar funding levels till 2020.

106 - Bonfire Of The Regulations
2017-02-13
After Brexit, what happens to all those EU rules and regulations? Chris Morris discovers how Britain will face will undergo an extraordinary legal revolution. Many of the country's laws will be rewritten, and all kinds of new agencies created to police them. What will this mean in practice, how long might it take, and what has Henry VIII got to do with it?

107 - Could Brexit Change Our Travel Plans
2017-02-14
When the UK leaves the EU, will travel to and from Europe change? Will low-cost airlines find it more expensive to do business and pass on the costs to us? Will we have to factor in the cost of a visa and the hassle of getting one, just to cross the Channel? And even if we do, does it matter? Or are these things just a price worth paying for controlling our borders and blocking the free movement of people? To find out how things could go, Chris Morris takes his own journey - into the future.

108 - Can Scotland Do Brexit Differently
2017-02-15
The Scottish government says it wants to stay closer to the EU than England after Brexit. What could this mean in practice? Chris Morris investigates - with the help of a glass of claret, a fishing excursion and a brain-stretching session of neuropolitics.

109 - Is The City's Goose Cooked
2017-02-16
Will the City of London - Britain's golden goose - have its wings clipped by Brexit? Chris Morris discovers a financial fairy tale surrounding a vital question. Many EU countries say they hope to win some of the City's lucrative business after Britain leaves the EU. But does Europe fear harming what will remain a vital asset for the whole continent?

110 - Donald Trump And Brexit
2017-02-17
What might Donald Trump mean for Brexit? Will the new US President offer Britain a vital new ally as it leaves the EU? Or will the president's attitudes towards Europe complicate the Brexit process - and trade pose problems for Theresa May? Chris Morris investigates how we now have to navigate a new global universe.

 

[teacup]

We have been in the EU for 40 years ... that is not a very long time ... before the EU was formed they bought from us, we bought from them ... we visited them ('going abroad'), they visited us ... I cannot see that changing.
Now the paperwork for doing business is going to change but business (money generating) will carry on ...

 

[Moll Flanders]

Donald Trump postpones state visit to Britain until October amid fears he will create 'a scene'

I have noticed that BBC reporters keep saying "fascinating" whenever they say something about Donald Trump, it's obviously code for a word they are not supposed to use as they are meant to be impartial.