UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

[Second Summer]

We have been in the EU for 40 years ... that is not a very long time ... before the EU was formed they bought from us, we bought from them ... we visited them ('going abroad'), they visited us ... I cannot see that changing.
Now the paperwork for doing business is going to change but business (money generating) will carry on ...

A lot has happened to trade and commerce in the last 40 years, though. The volume of goods, services and migration across (internal) European borders has increased to a previously unimagined extent. Therefore the process of leaving the EU at this point is a lot more complicated than it was 40 years ago.

 

[Moll Flanders]

Brexit: UK 'not obliged' to pay divorce bill say peers - BBC News

Peers urge PM not to pay divorce bill if no Brexit deal is agreed

 

[Moll Flanders]

Could Sinn Fein surge spurred by Brexit see Northern Ireland leave the UK?

 

[Second Summer]

The Scottish Government will hold a second referendum on independence from the United Kingdom, Nicola Sturgeon has announced.

The First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party made the announcement as MPs in Westminster prepared to trigger Article 50 and begin Brexit negotiations.

Under the legislation used to call a referendum, Ms Sturgeon could see her party's call vetoed by Theresa May.

More: Nicola Sturgeon announces a second Scottish independence referendum - read her full speech (13. March 2017)

Ouch, this could lead to even more uncertainty and economic instability ...

 

[Moll Flanders]

Anywheres vs Somewheres: the split that made Brexit inevitable

Kind of annoying, but there is quite a lot of truth to this article. I might read the book.

 

[Pirate]

It's a really hard decision for the Scots. One one hand, they voted to remain in an EU Britain, and now they're not getting what they voted for. However, if they split from the UK and the EU won't have them back they're pretty stuffed.

If they split and the EU do let them back, I'll hope having Scottish grandparents gets me a passport

 

[Second Summer]

However, if they split from the UK and the EU won't have them back they're pretty stuffed.

If they split and the EU do let them back, I'll hope having Scottish grandparents gets me a passport

I read recently that Spain has waived its opposition to Scottish membership. I think that was probably the main obstacle.

I'm also reading, if I understand correctly, that we're likely to have 'business as usual' including free movement, until there is a trade agreement between the UK and EU, even if it takes more than two years to negotiate the deal, which sounds likely.
PM says free movement could be green lit for Brexit transition

 

[Andy_T]

This has been circulating in Europe in the last days...

'She's deluding herself': May's disastrous Brexit meeting with Juncker revealed

Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker's dinner leaked because no-one thinks Brexit will work

Britain’s complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation | Simon Tilford

 

[Second Summer]

Theresa May has made an offer regarding the status of EU citizens after Brexit:

EU citizens already in the UK – and those who arrive lawfully during a subsequent “grace period,” expected to be up to two years – will be given the opportunity to build up five years’ worth of residence.

That will entitle them to a special category of “settled status”, conferring the same rights to work, pensions, NHS care and other public services as British citizens, which they will maintain for life.

More: Theresa May makes 'fair and serious' offer on rights of EU citizens in UK (22. June 2017)
It's not clear when the cut-off date of the grace period will be, just that it's some time after article 50 was triggered and before March 2019.
The offer is contingent on a reciprocal offer for British citizens living in the EU.

To be fair, I didn't think it was a bad offer, considering the various scare stories in the media about expelling EU citizens already living here. In any case, it's a relief they're finally starting these discussions.

 

[Second Summer]

I agree that the offer is vague, though. Also, it doesn't seem EU citizens who have not yet lived here 5 years yet will be given free access to NHS, child benefits and such? Basically, they're on their own as they won't have any rights until they attain the 'settled' status after 5 years? That seems like a very uncertain existence ...!

 

[Moll Flanders]

Interesting. Nicola Sturgeon has said today that Indyref2 would now only be held after Brexit. Obviously, it is to do with the performance of the SNP in the General election, they lost 21 seats. She is against a hard Brexit and wants to keep Scotland in the single market.

 

[Moll Flanders]

It has been 10 years since the last Labour leader to win a GE quit as PM. I will probably sign up to become a member of the LibDem party, I was thinking of doing it after the EU referendum but I thought I would see what happened next.

It's 10 years today since the last Labour leader to win a general election quit as PM - David Williamson - Wales Online

This made me laugh.
NSFW
Just f**k off out of it, May tells voters

 

[Second Summer]

Apparently, I won't be able to leave the UK for periods longer than 2 years and expect to be able to come back again.
All the rights EU citizens in the UK are set to lose after Brexit

If Norway is going to allow dual citizenship in the future, as several political parties there now seem to support, I might apply for British citizenship. Then you'll never get rid of me.

 

[Second Summer]

Brexodus - the exodus of EU nationals from Britain because of Brexit.

 

[Moll Flanders]

Brexit: British officials drop 'cake and eat it' approach to negotiations | Politics | The Guardian
^ I saw this posted on a forum and it was jumped on as Remoaner propaganda.


Britain 'is on the brink of housing price collapse' | Daily Mail Online
Some are saying that there could be a 40% drop in house prices if Brexit does lead to a recession. Some of the men I know online that are b-t-l landlords have sold off some of their property already. There was a b-t-l tax that has been introduced recently, I know as they all keep moaning about it.

 

[shyvas]

Brexit: British officials drop 'cake and eat it' approach to negotiations | Politics | The Guardian
^ I saw this posted on a forum and it was jumped on as Remoaner propaganda.


Britain 'is on the brink of housing price collapse' | Daily Mail Online
Some are saying that there could be a 40% drop in house prices if Brexit does lead to a recession. Some of the men I know online that are b-t-l landlords have sold off some of their property already. There was a b-t-l tax that has been introduced recently, I know as they all keep moaning about it.

Perhaps I'll be able to afford to buy property in Brighton.

 

[Second Summer]

Perhaps I'll be able to afford property in Oxfordshire ... It's a risky time to be buying a house, though.

Some people are having second thoughts regarding the whole Brexit situation:

Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, described the referendum as a “dumb idea” before other ideas had been tried to win back powers from Brussels. He has also warned that Brexit is shaping up to be a “guaranteed debacle”, without big changes in Whitehall to deliver a successful negotiation.

More: Brexit: Vote Leave chief who created £350m NHS claim on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error' (4. July 2017)

 

[Second Summer]

Wishful thinking?

He said "enormous" divisions in the Labour and the Tory parties and a "deteriorating" economy would make people think again.

"People will realise that we didn't vote to be poorer, and I think the whole question of continued membership will once again arise," he said.

More: Brexit may never happen - Sir Vince Cable - BBC News (9. July 2017)

 

[shyvas]

New EasyJet airline created for Brexit

 

[Second Summer]

Theresa May was buying sunglasses in Italy, Boris Johnson was making jokes about boomerangs in Australia and Liam Fox was fending off questions about chlorinated chicken in Washington.

With MPs of all stripes jetting off for holidays and foreign trips to mark the official start of parliamentary recess this week, the political news was meant to die down.

But while the cabinet’s biggest Brexit supporters were out of the country, a significant development in the government’s EU policy has been emerging over the last seven days – spearheaded by the chancellor, Philip Hammond.

More: While May's away: Hammond leads cabinet reshuffle on Brexit policy (29. July)
So a longer transition period, but then "full Brexit" in 2022? This sounds like a more realistic approach in any case, as negotiating a new trade agreement with the EU is not something you can do in less than 2 years which seems to have been the plan until now.