US The 2020 Campaign for US President

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The reason for Trump's rise, and the reason for the Democratic party's failure to fully capitalize on it, explained in one sentence.

Andrew Yang says Democrats need to improve their appeal to people like truck drivers, retail workers and waitresses: "In their minds the Democratic party unfortunately has taken on this role of the coastal urban elites who are more concerned about policing various cultural issues than improving their way of life that has been declining for years."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1324518032719433728
 
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Trump's refusal to accept reality it seems to me has a good side as well as a dark side although the latter part is more clear.

The good side - and I'm not fully confident on this - is that his disdain for the democratic process should hopefully have a negative impact on his approval rating with some people that would have given him a good rating before. I'm talking about moderates, independents and conservative voters who view him as the lesser of two evils. I'm hoping this will cause his approval rating to drop a few points. I'd like to see the surveys next week. If he loses this election that makes it harder for him to run and win again in 2024 (when he will be 78). Maybe it's my wishful lefty thinking but this should hopefully leave a toxic situation for Republicans where the Republican party struggles with its identity after Trump. Perhaps he leaves a shadow over the party, and the party can't fully break with him either because so many of their supporters support him and it's hard to run and win as a Republican and congress without being Trumpish these days. And hopefully that gives Democrats a little boost in the next couple of election cycles for congress.

The dark side is that, if Trump loses, some Trump supporters that have lost touch with reality are going to believe that the election was stolen from them. These people are going to be angry. Trump is increasing the odds of terrorism/shooting, violent riots, depression, suicide, as well as hostility in personal relationships with friends and family.

At some point people will die because of that speech. But I also think that speech damaged American in a thousand tiny ways.
 
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Biden now looks favourite in Georgia I think.

He is still favourite in Pennyslvania.

He still looks slight favourite in Arizona - next report at 11am ET according to New York Times.

He still looks slight favourite in Nevada, -next report as 12 noon ET according to New York Times.

My take is that Biden has about a 90% chance to win this race as of right now maybe 80% when we allow for the supreme court. The bigger Biden's electoral college lead - the harder it is for Trump to use some lies or exaggerations about fraud to undermine the result.

Unless one of the counts goes more Trump's way then by lunch time ET we are looking at Biden potentially reaching a very strong position - maybe enough for TV networks or Biden himself to claim victory or at least considering it.

IF we get to that point (which we might not!) we then move into territory this afternoon where key questions become:

1 Which Republicans congratulate Biden and concede before Trump does?
2 Is there a scenario where Mike Pence just goes silent and refuses to comment on Twitter or appear on TV?
3 Do world leaders congratulate Biden quickly to get on his good side or hedge their bets incase Trump somehow clings onto power? I'll like to propose Angela Merkel lead the way in congratulating Biden publically before Trump has even conceded - it's low risk for her, since she is resigning as chancellor anyway in 2021 and Trump has really really low popularity in Germany. Meanwhile I'd expect radio silence from many other countries for a fair while including the UK, Russia and China.
4 Are people going to take to the streets tonight or tomorrow in bigger numbers? How bad will that be?
 
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Jamie in Chile said:
Trump's refusal to accept reality it seems to me has a good side as well as a dark side although the latter part is more clear.

The good side - and I'm not fully confident on this - is that his disdain for the democratic process should hopefully have a negative impact on his approval rating with some people that would have given him a good rating before. I'm talking about moderators, independents and conservative voters who view him as the lesser of two evils. I'm hoping this will cause his approval rating to drop a few points. I'd like to see the surveys next week. If he loses this election that makes it harder for him to run and win again in 2024 (when he will be 78). Maybe it's my wishful lefty thinking but this should hopefully leave a toxic situation for Republicans where the Republican party struggles with its identity after Trump. Perhaps he leaves a shadow over the party, and the party can't fully break with him either because so many of their supporters support him and it's hard to run and win as a Republican and congress without being Trumpish these days. And hopefully that gives Democrats a little boost in the next couple of election cycles for congress.

The dark side is that, if Trump loses, some Trump supporters that have lost touch with reality are going to believe that the election was stolen from them. These people are going to be angry. Trump is increasing the odds of terrorism/shooting, violent riots, depression, suicide, as well as hostility in personal relationships with friends and family.

At some point people will die because of that speech. But I also think that speech damaged American in a thousand tiny ways.
Click to expand...
I don't think your "good side" has a snowball's chance. The only Trump supporters who might see him as the lesser of two evils are the evangelicals. and I'm not sure about that.

He won't be running again in 2024. He will either be in jail or negotiated a deal for a pardon.

Not sure how the republicans regroup. but they may not even have to. the senate may make Biden look so ineffective that the Democratic party becomes weaker. The worst-case scenario in my mind is that they find someone who supports Trump's ideas but isn't so crazy and stupid. The idea of an effective "Trump" scares me.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the problem post-Trump is that there are about 1 million people who still voted for them. And they are not going to magically disappear.

Your dark side is pretty much inevitable. the only questions are how much and for how long? Also if Trump will leave the Whitehouse peaceably.
 
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I would like to see a reporter cover nonvoters. I have been under the impression that last time (most times?) one-third vote Democratic, one third vote Republican and one third don't vote.
but it looks more like half the population didn't cast a vote. With so much at stake and it being so close - seems like this really was a time that it was worth voting for.

I figure only 23% of the population voted for Biden. Only 20% for Trump. Is this any way to run a democracy?!
 
Re: Conservatives: I think Amash is an interesting one to follow. He was quick to take a very strong stance against Trump, going so far as to protest the whole Republican party while maintaining a conservative set of views.

@Lou I did see an article about non-voters. It was lengthy yet superficial. The interviewer didn't get into the bigger issues in society that cause people to feel so disenfranchised that they don't vote. Usually, it's more than just feeling like their vote won't count. They're deeply unhappy with the options and the system as a whole. Another case where we need to listen to the "other," instead of making insulting assumptions about them.
 
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I think Amash is a "good" Republican. Perhaps an endangered species.

Someone needs to find out what the nonvoters need or want. although their needs and wants are probably not all the same. But if a candidate could somehow sway just 10% of the nonvoters to vote for him it would be something like an extra 5 points.
 
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Lou said:
I would like to see a reporter cover nonvoters. I have been under the impression that last time (most times?) one-third vote Democratic, one third vote Republican and one third don't vote.
but it looks more like half the population didn't cast a vote. With so much at stake and it being so close - seems like this really was a time that it was worth voting for.

I figure only 23% of the population voted for Biden. Only 20% for Trump. Is this any way to run a democracy?!
Click to expand...

So far Biden has 74 million, and Trump 70 million.

However, many millions of votes haven´t been counted yet (mostly in not close states that haven´t been called). At a very rough guess 10 million votes haven´t been counted.

That will bring us to Biden 80 million, Trump 75 million. Turnout this year seems to be up, it is certainly by far the highest ever in absolute numbers.

USA is 330 million. That gives us 24% for Biden, 23% for Trump.

But that includes children and others that can´t vote (e.g. illegal/undocumented immigrants) so it´s a nonsense figure. It probably still comes close to a third for Biden, a third for Trump, and a third not voting by the time you look at the total people with the right to vote.
 
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Lou said:
I think Amash is a "good" Republican. Perhaps an endangered species.

Someone needs to find out what the nonvoters need or want. although their needs and wants are probably not all the same. But if a candidate could somehow sway just 10% of the nonvoters to vote for him it would be something like an extra 5 points.
Click to expand...

I think what you suggest was already achieved this year by both candidates. Have a look at the final or nearly final count of all votes in a week or two and compare it to 2016. You are perhaps going to see that both sides increased by about the amount you suggest.
 
Jamie in Chile said:
But that includes children and others that can´t vote (e.g. illegal/undocumented immigrants) so it´s a nonsense figure. It probably still comes close to a third for Biden, a third for Trump, and a third not voting by the time you look at the total people with the right to vote.
Click to expand...
Oh!! that is a good point! I forgot about the kids. there are 70 million of them. I have to re-do my math.

:)

Ha. it looks like after you subtract kids its about 1/3 Democrats, 1/3 Republican, and 1/3 nonvoters. Just like last time.
 
Jamie in Chile said:
I think what you suggest was already achieved this year by both candidates. Have a look at the final or nearly final count of all votes in a week or two and compare it to 2016. You are perhaps going to see that both sides increased by about the amount you suggest.
Click to expand...
Wait, are you suggesting even more people (numbers not percentages) voted for Trump?
That is terrible news
 
I still can't believe it can be that close.

Mark Twain said something that seems relevant today

"Consider the average intelligence of the common man, then realize 50% are even stupider.”

Kind of explains this election.

It's not particularly relevant but Churchill said,

".... democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other(s) .…’
 
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