US The 2020 Campaign for US President

[Lou]

That´s correct Lou. Michigan and Arizona are very likely for Biden but not certain yet.

Nevada I am not sure of the odds there.

One possibility now is we won´t know much more for the rest of today and then the announcement of Nevada´s other votes at 12 noon tomorrow will be a really big deal.

As I mentioned a few hours ago, Nevada could be the decider and it really should be getting more attention from the media, pundits and politicians than it has so far.

Biden has a .6% lead in Nevada with 86% of the votes counted. and yeah, they are not going to release any more data till noon tomorrow.

OH! They just gave Biden Michigan.

 

[Lou]

From the NYT
"Officials in Nevada had previously said that results would not be updated until Thursday morning, but they have since indicated they may release more today"

And I don't know why but the NYT now thinks a Biden victory in PA is likely.

I'm starting the parade.

🏎

 

[Brian W]

GO NEVADA! Fingers crossed.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I am glad Biden beat Sanders and Warren and the others now. Even though I think Sanders and Warren have better policies, and are more capable and more inspiring people, I don´t think they would have beaten Trump.

The polls before Biden won the nomination showed him beating Trump easily by 7-8 points, similar to the polls just before the election.....whereas the other polls showed Sanders/Warren etc up only 2-5 points vs Trump in a potential matchup. Given that in both elections (Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020) Trump did about 5+ points better than the polls predicted vs his opponent the most simple logic suggests that he could have beaten most or all of the other democratic candidates. Of course, that may be overly simplistic.

Sanders and Warren don´t represent everyone in the nation in the way Biden can. Whether that is a criticism of Sanders and Warren, or the nation, I´ll leave you to decide.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Another thing I will say for Biden is that he managed to get all the way through the campaign without a single major gaffe. Looking back to the starting weeks of the campaign, that didn´t seem likely. Exciting news about Nevada, thanks for sharing, but remember this could go either way. There have been claims that the type of votes counted later might favour Trump (for reasons I can´t recall).

 

[Second Summer]

One angle that the media seems to have forgotten about is that if the winning margin is 270-268, the corrupt Trump administration could just persuade one of the electoral college representatives to switch votes. That seems plausible to me and there isn´t any absolute law to stop it as far as I know? You only need to get one of all of the hundreds to do it. If the margin is 270-268, you can´t relax until you have been inaugurated.

I wonder if the one electoral college vote from Nebraska will actually take Biden to 271? (Assuming Nevada goes to Biden, of course ...)

 

[Urban Gardener]

Another thing I will say for Biden is that he managed to get all the way through the campaign without a single major gaffe. Looking back to the starting weeks of the campaign, that didn´t seem likely. Exciting news about Nevada, thanks for sharing, but remember this could go either way. There have been claims that the type of votes counted later might favour Trump (for reasons I can´t recall).

His line, to paraphrase, "If you don't vote for me, then you ain't Black," seems like a major gaffe to me. It angered a lot of people, and some voted against him as a result.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I wonder if the one electoral college vote from Nebraska will actually take Biden to 271? (Assuming Nevada goes to Biden, of course ...)

Actually don´t know - I think 270-268 is if:
Biden wins Nevada (which he might not)
Trump wins Pennyslvania (which he might not)
Trump wins Georgia (which he might not)

and then if everything else goes as the TV has called it. I´ve only been following the swing/battle states so no idea about Nebraska.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

His line, to paraphrase, "If you don't vote for me, then you ain't Black," seems like a major gaffe to me. It angered a lot of people, and some voted against him as a result.

Fair point. I´ll concede that this was a gaffe. The only debate is how big.

 

[Urban Gardener]

Fair point. I´ll concede that this was a gaffe. The only debate is how big.

It's hard to quantify. It depends on who you talk to.

I was recently talking to a Black voter who said he was on the fence and leaning towards Trump because of that incident and what it implies about Biden.

 

[Urban Gardener]

AP now says Biden has 264 electoral votes and Trump is stuck at 214.

So it looks like it will go to Biden.

I wonder if Trump supporters will riot. There's been a lot of concern about that.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

New York Times and CNN now report that Nevada, who previously said that they might release results tonight, has now reverted to its plan of 9AM tomorrow local time or 12 noon Eastern. Probably eyes on Georgia a bit now....

 

[SuicideBlonde]

Kanye West Concedes 2020 Election But Signals He Isn’t Done

The rapper collected an estimated 60,000 votes, including 10,000 in Tennessee.

www.huffpost.com

"Although West never had a chance to win the election, he picked up more than 10,000 votes in Tennessee alone, and at least 60,000 votes across the country, according to Deadline."

 

[Lou]

I am glad Biden beat Sanders and Warren and the others now. Even though I think Sanders and Warren have better policies, and are more capable and more inspiring people, I don´t think they would have beaten Trump.

The polls before Biden won the nomination showed him beating Trump easily by 7-8 points, similar to the polls just before the election.....whereas the other polls showed Sanders/Warren etc up only 2-5 points vs Trump in a potential matchup. Given that in both elections (Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020) Trump did about 5+ points better than the polls predicted vs his opponent the most simple logic suggests that he could have beaten most or all of the other democratic candidates. Of course, that may be overly simplistic.

Sanders and Warren don´t represent everyone in the nation in the way Biden can. Whether that is a criticism of Sanders and Warren, or the nation, I´ll leave you to decide.

I didn't vote for Joe cause I liked him. I voted for him because I disliked Trump.
I'm probably a little narrow-minded on this but I don't think it mattered who we put up against Trump. It could have been Warren or Sanders or a large rabbit.
Now Joe didn't do well in Dade county cause the old Cubans thought he was a socialist. but he isn't a socialist - that was Bernie. So maybe Bernie helped Trump out in FL - and he wasn't even running.
Also, I still feel the same way as I did this morning. Although I'm glad we are got rid of Trump, this election has revealed the ugly underbelly of America. And perhaps Joe is best suited to do some of the healing.

(still keeping my fingers crossed)

 

[Lou]

Another thing I will say for Biden is that he managed to get all the way through the campaign without a single major gaffe. Looking back to the starting weeks of the campaign, that didn´t seem likely. Exciting news about Nevada, thanks for sharing, but remember this could go either way. There have been claims that the type of votes counted later might favour Trump (for reasons I can´t recall).

I think the pandemic actually helped out Biden by keeping him in his basement.
I'm not even sure that the "you aren't black" thing even counted. what he meant when he said that is pretty clear and although he probably shouldn't have said it. I think everyone understands the sentiment unless they really don't want to.

 

[Lou]

Just found this article in my newsfeed. Very sad but a very clear perspective.

Favorite quote

The GOP looks likely to hold the Senate, which means Republicans can put a brick on any legislation a President Joe Biden would want to pass. Trump has already given the GOP three U.S. Supreme Court justices and conservative control of the judicial branch of government for at least a generation, and his bullying and braying on Twitter make it difficult for elected Republicans to follow their own agendas.​

​

​

Column: Trumpism will shape the next four years, no matter who the president is

Trumpism has been vindicated.

www.chicagotribune.com

I don't buy into his predictions for 22 and 24 tho.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

After considering the current lead, the rate that lead has been falling by, and the type of ballots remaining (postal ballots favour Biden), all of Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina look very close to me. I wouldn´t like to call any of those at the moment. They all look like they will end up with a 50-49 type result or even closer in some cases.

Arizona looks more likely for Biden to me, given the current lead and the fact that some of the uncounted votes are from Phoenix, which I find hard to believe would be a Trumptown.

 

[Sax]

I am glad Biden beat Sanders and Warren and the others now. Even though I think Sanders and Warren have better policies, and are more capable and more inspiring people, I don´t think they would have beaten Trump.

We'll never know for sure but my gut says otherwise. Biden really did nothing to fire up the base or put forward an inspiring vision for political action. I honestly don't even know what his campaign slogan was and I couldn't tell you anything about his policy priorities. He didn't give me anything to vote for, he was just the only viable option to vote against Trump. I don't want to see the next Dem candidate replicate that.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Speaking of Bernie, some people are sharing his predictions of election night from some days back which turned out to be impressively accurate:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1324069655359664130

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Biden needs to win a little over 60% of the not yet counted votes in Pennyslvania but recently has been winning these postal votes, which tend to be democrat at a 70%-80% rate. Biden looks the slight favourite there at the time of writing.