US The 2020 Campaign for US President

[KLS52]

It's close. This is what I'm getting from the googler.

View attachment 22812

This is what I’ve been following. If the pendings stay as is, Trump wins. The little glimmer of hope is that at 2 AM Wisconsin was pending red and then it suddenly switched to blue. We need more of the pending reds to do the same otherwise we are doomed.

Of course, I’m saying “we” but I realize that not everyone on VV is rooting for Biden.

 

[KLS52]

I think it’s cool that Arizona was red and flipped blue.

 

[Urban Gardener]

I see it as beyond the liberal / conservative divide at this point. Trump is just incompetent. He's dishonest, bigoted, and has so severely mishandled the COVID situation, he's responsible for many thousands of deaths. Not to mention what he did to people crossing the border. It's possible to take a conservative approach to things without causing that degree of suffering and loss of life.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Biden has pulled ahead in Wisconsin and may be catching up in Michigan. In both states, is the remaining count more postal votes that might favour Biden?

At this stage I am
98% sure that Biden will win the popular vote (possibly by a mile..remember Clinton's popular vote growing and growing in the days after the election in 2016)
60% sure he will win the electoral college and the Presidency

Edit: Stop press: AP reporting Biden ahead in Michigan!

 

[Urban Gardener]

It's interesting that in this election, we have a politicized disease epidemic that's affecting the method of voting that people use.

I imagine that the mail-in ballots will favor Biden because: 1) Liberal-leaning voters are taking more precautions against COVID. 2) People who have to be cautious because they're at greater risk are probably more likely to vote against Trump.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Also Trump has been relentlessly telling his supporters to vote in person, claiming (almost certainly falsely) that mail in ballots are a significant risk of fraud.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins (Published 2020)

Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected the 46th president of the United States. See full results and maps from the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

is a good resource I've just discovered

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Looks like Biden's path to victory is:
1 Don't lose any states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (and so far he hasn't I think?)
2 Win three states that Clinton lost in 2016 which are Arizona (which he may already have won), Wisconsin and Michigan

If the same trends continue in Wisconsin, Biden may be able to claim it this morning US time or at least say next few hours?

It may come down to Michigan this afternoon / evening?

EDIT: The odds checker site has been very slowly changing its betting odds in favour of Biden. It now has it about 75%/25% which looks reasonable for now, but things could change. (Trump was favourite when I woke up this morning.)

 

[Urban Gardener]

I predict that Biden will win. That's my guess at this point. I'm wagering one post-like.

 

[KLS52]

I cannot allow myself to hope as I will be crushed if he doesn’t win.

 

[Lou]

In all the "too close to call" states only PA seems out of reach for Biden.
Many of those states are leaning for Trump now but as mentioned here, the Mail-in votes will favor Biden.
I will check later to see if anyone has re-done the math but as of last night, one of the guys who does do the math said that Biden only has to win one of them to win the election. Of course, then the lawsuits and recounts will start. As many predicted, we probably won't know for weeks.

This morning I am way more disappointed than anxious. What this election revealed to me is that this country is even more f***** up than I thought.

The pop of the US is over 3 M. Approx 1 M voted for Biden. Another 1 M for Trump. (I'm rounding up to the nearest million). That means that 1 M - about a third of all Americans, didn't even bother to cast a ballot. I doubt that very many of them had any kind of good excuse. So about a third of this country is either too lazy or too ignorant or too apathetic or too confused or maybe too disenfranchised to cast a ballot.

That isn't what bothers me the most. It's the third that voted for Trump. In the last election, I gave some of the non-voters a pass. Who thought Trump could win? I'll even give some of the Trump voters in the last election a pass. Maybe they thought they were voting for change or making a statement. Some may just have been gullible and bought into the rhetoric. But everyone should know better now.

Some of this year's Trump voters may just be guilty of gullibility. But I think the main reason to vote for Trump is cause you are racist. You might not be the kind of racist that burns black churches. Just the kind that thinks that providing more rights, opportunities, and liberties to Other people means that somehow your rights, opportunities, and liberties will be diminished.

I know that some are just totally against abortions. But I won't give them a pass either. Can you be that focused on the rights of the unborn and be blind to what is happening to children who have been born. (Obviously, I'm thinking of the Child Separation issue - but there are plenty of other examples of Brown children suffering. )

There are also those who have power and wealth and won't relinquish it for any reason. Not even it means the death of tens of thousands of citizens.

Anyway, a country is way more than its president. We live in a democracy, even if it's flawed, you have to respect and account for the will of the people. With a third of the people not caring and the other third racist or stupid, or selfish - well I don't see much hope for a Better America.

 

[Lou]

Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted (Published 2020)

See the outstanding estimated vote to be counted in the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

If you move your cursor over any of the checkmarks you can see "the path to Victory"
I think it's all going to come down to Georgia.

 

[Raven]

I predict that Biden will win. That's my guess at this point.

I predicted to my husband before we started watching the coverage last night that I thought Trump was going to win, despite the polls.

I am happy to be proven wrong and it looks like Biden will win. I hope I'm not tempting fate!

 

[Brian W]

The important thing is whether the supreme court will back Trump and dismiss votes counted after today. Whether Biden is the real winner or not will mean nothing if the mostly Republican court rule in Trump's favour. I would like to be able to trust them to behave legally but I have seen far to much political twisting going on since he has been in charge of the US.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

EDIT: This tweet was later retracted and ruled to be false by Politfact.

A couple of hours ago, Donald Trump retweeted this image (without original source of image) which claims to show that votes were updated at one point, a while ago, and Joe Biden was suddenly added 120,000 votes at a point where other candidates were added nothing. The implication here is that if 100% of votes were added from a certain new addition that this could be fraudulent.

The first thing here would be to try and find the source of this claim, and check if it was a doctored image.

Assuming the image itself is real, the most likely explanation is that a mistake was made (either by an official or media) and then updated/fixed later. However, it would be good to clear this up and it's worth having an open mind.

However, even if it is cleared up within the hour, you can bet this image will be circulating on social media on and off for the rest of the decade! That is part of the problem with social media.


EDIT: there is someone on twitter, Dan Mclaughlin @baseball crank that posted a response showing even more weird charging numbers, to try and make the point that this was a mistake and not evidence of fraud.

 

[Urban Gardener]

A couple of hours ago, Donald Trump retweeted this image (without original source of image) which claims to show that votes were updated at one point, a while ago, and Joe Biden was suddenly added 120,000 votes at a point where other candidates were added nothing. The implication here is that if 100% of votes were added from a certain new addition that this could be fraudulent.

The first thing here would be to try and find the source of this claim, and check if it was a doctored image.

Assuming the image itself is real, the most likely explanation is that a mistake was made (either by an official or media) and then updated/fixed later. However, it would be good to clear this up and it's worth having an open mind.

However, even if it is cleared up within the hour, you can bet this image will be circulating on social media on and off for the rest of the decade! That is part of the problem with social media.

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But the same thing happened in the print world too (and still does). Publications that were later corrected continue to circulate.

It's a human trait - to bend the truth to one's own advantage. It's not even unique to humans, I suspect. My dog can be "dishonest" at times too, but I can't be sure about his motives because he is of a different species.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

By the way, don't be fooled by the 53%/45% lead for Trump in Pennsylvania. The votes are still only 80% counted. Biden needs to win the remaining votes at around a rate of 65%-68% or so, but he has been winning big lately because I think most or all of the remaining ballots are mail in.

So he still has a chance.

That state is still in play.

 

[peacefulveglady]

Lol these election results is something else. True nail biter .

 

[Jamie in Chile]

The drama of the ups and downs is a bit like watching sport except at the end instead of a trophy and listening to "we are the champions" we probably get catastrophic climate change and continuing inequality and division which kinds of takes the fun out of the drama of it.

 

[peacefulveglady]

The drama of the ups and downs is a bit like watching sport except at the end instead of a trophy and listening to "we are the champions" we probably get catastrophic climate change and continuing inequality and division which kinds of takes the fun out of the drama of it.

I told someone i feel like i am watching the world series..