US The 2020 Campaign for US President

[Amy SF]

The map has Idaho leaning blue. Really?

 

[Second Summer]

The map has Idaho leaning blue. Really?

The default map there has it as a solid red state, as far as I can tell. It's possible to select other pre-filled maps, though. If you click the"reset map" button, then that button turns into a drop-down from which you can select these other maps.

 

[Lou]

i don't know much about the polling of Idaho. With its 4 electoral votes, it's not a concern. However, I could see it swinging blue.
Idaho has a lot of farmers and ranchers and a lot of them are unhappy with Trump.
I don't have any statistics to back this up but I've been to Idaho and they have a lot of colleges and universities. Idaho high school grads are automatically admitted to state universities and colleges. There are at least 5 universities that are top-notch and attract out of state students, too. And I associate smart educated young people as people who don't vote for Trump.

 

[Lou]

I was watching another Kleeper Report on YouTube and a couple of the Trumpers were saying they would not stay in the US if Biden wins. Well, I was saying something similar four years ago, so take that with a grain of salt.

That would solve my second biggest concern. What the Trumpers might do if Trump loses.
I've been distracting myself with what country they might like to go to. One of the Trumpers said Costa Rica but Jordan was quick to bring up that CR has universal health care (like most civilized countries). Then Jordan suggested Argentina.

 

[Brian W]

I don't want to raise false hopes but maybe there is hope here?

 

[Urban Gardener]

i don't know much about the polling of Idaho. With its 4 electoral votes, it's not a concern. However, I could see it swinging blue.
Idaho has a lot of farmers and ranchers and a lot of them are unhappy with Trump.
I don't have any statistics to back this up but I've been to Idaho and they have a lot of colleges and universities. Idaho high school grads are automatically admitted to state universities and colleges. There are at least 5 universities that are top-notch and attract out of state students, too. And I associate smart educated young people as people who don't vote for Trump.

I've spent some time there. It's kind of like New Hampshire. It leans libertarian conservative, but there are also a lot of liberal residents and areas that are more liberal. Boise is kind of a college town. There are also some really interesting tourist towns that attract a range of people, liberal and conservative. And Coer d'Alene (sp) is basically a twin city of Spokane. They're very close. It's one metro area.

 

[Amy SF]

*exhales* Well, Election Day is finally here, the day we’ve all been waiting for for four years. (Sorry about the repetition there.) Since we’re not going to have final results on anything tonight, I’ve been vascillating between wanting to stay on top of Election Day coverage and wanting to avoid it and concentrate on other things, like watching animal videos on YouTube. Or something Disney for complete escapism. I’m just mentally exhausted now.

I mailed off my ballot two weeks ago, but I waited until today to slap this sticker on me:

 

[Lou]

I thought I read somewhere it was better to vote in person so that is what I did. but I don't know, I think the mail-in ballots will get counted just as fast as my in-person vote.

it was kind of interesting. No lines at my place. just 3 stations. they were gigantic monochrome touch screens.
the volunteers looked kind of bored so I stopped and chatted with them a while. They said there were lines early this morning. and there were some technical difficulties too. But it looked very organized and well run.

I am very nervous. when i get anxious I lose my appetite. I had breakfast but I can't get interested in making lunch.

I'm going to hold off as long as I can before checking the news coverage.

 

[Urban Gardener]

I voted a week ago. I thought I had posted about it here, but I guess not!

I thought in-person early voting would be the best bet - lower COVID risk and less chance of your ballot getting lost.

@Lou - The news coverage is pretty dull right now. You're not missing much.

 

[Urban Gardener]

I was watching another Kleeper Report on YouTube and a couple of the Trumpers were saying they would not stay in the US if Biden wins. Well, I was saying something similar four years ago, so take that with a grain of salt.

That would solve my second biggest concern. What the Trumpers might do if Trump loses.
I've been distracting myself with what country they might like to go to. One of the Trumpers said Costa Rica but Jordan was quick to bring up that CR has universal health care (like most civilized countries). Then Jordan suggested Argentina.

Interesting!

I have friends in Argentina. They say the government is very authoritarian and everything is expensive. They don't have much live music. You can't just get in your car and drive somewhere because gas is a lot pricier than it is here. There's a heavy police presence, and many people like it that way.

That's according to a few people, of course. But if it's true, I don't think many American conservatives would like it. It sounds more, "law and order / safety first / raise taxes" than especially blue or red by our standards.

I know someone who is very vocally pro-Trump. I said, "Liberals tend to compare the US to other countries when discussing policy. We point to examples of universalized health care in other nations. I find it interesting that conservatives rarely do this. Is this because you consider the US to be so unique that comparisons are not worth making? And if you had to name a country we should aspire to be more similar to, which country would that be?"

He said Russia.

That was around the time that Trump was elected, before his association with Putin came into the spotlight here.

 

[Lou]

Well, so far Trump is ahead in most of the important swing states.
Damn.
Well there is still some hope.

 

[Urban Gardener]

Well, so far Trump is ahead in most of the important swing states.
Damn.
Well there is still some hope.

I saw that. Biden has 223 electoral votes and Trump has 174, but the remaining states lean towards Trump.

 

[KLS52]

Thank God for these two, helping me get through the night. I can’t sleep.

 

[KLS52]

I woke up at 1 AM. It is now almost 3:30 and I am drinking coffee. I fear I am going to be sick today, in more ways than one.

 

[Second Summer]

Hard to believe, but we're looking at another 4 years with this administrasion. The Dems lost the rust belt - again.

There is still some counting to be done, but the numbers are not encouraging.

 

[Second Summer]

Something slightly encouraging for the Dems that I just discovered - Wisconsin at 98% of the districts counted now suddenly stands at 49% for both Biden and Trump. Earlier in the night Trump was leading big there. If this tendency continues and we see the same in Michigan and Pennsylvania when they have counted more of their votes, then Biden could still win.

 

[Raven]

They are saying here they might not have the result for days or even weeks.

A newsreader was just interviewing a republican and asking why Donald Trump says things that aren't true? Lol. Has he only just noticed that?

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Quite similar to 2016 in that Biden is winning the popular vote. and may yet win it by a wide margin, but the election will come down to a few states, perhaps in the rust belt and other areas, where we look let to see 51-49 or 52-48 vote shares.

Given the late postal votes, it looks like the result will most likely be clear in about 2 hours to 2 days, with some chance it could be a little less or a little more.

Presidential race looks 50/50 at this point to me but I haven´t done a deep analysis of it.

Odds checker has Biden as the favourite based on live betting odds:

US Politics Betting | American Political Odds | Oddschecker

US politics betting for all American markets. Get 2020 Election odds, including Democrat and Republican candidates, plus midterm specials and much more

www.oddschecker.com

That is based on actual money being staked, and tends to be a reasonable indicator.

Senate race looks like either Republicans to hold or very close, but I haven´t analysed the results, so this is just the impression of a few reports.

 

[Second Summer]

Wow, this is actually looking like it's super close right now - Wisconsin looks like a Biden win 50 Vs 49 and Michigan has moved to 49 Vs 49 with 75% of districts reporting! If Biden wins these plus Nevada - which is 49 Vs 49 at the moment, then I think he's at 270 electoral collage votes ....!

I agree that it will take some time before we know anything for certain as I'm sure votes will have to be recounted since it's so close in several states! This is definitely a nail-biter!!!

 

[Urban Gardener]

It's close. This is what I'm getting from the googler.