US The 2020 Campaign for US President

[Andy_T]

I am not filled with hope, after experiencing the effect that advertisements and bad-mouthing by the press had on Labour in the recent UK election...

The New Rules of the Game - Truthdig

If Bernie Sanders — miraculously — wins the nomination, Democratic Party elites suddenly will bless Trump as the least worst option.

www.truthdig.com

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I am not sure that democratic elites will favour Trump, I don't believe this article. I'm worried a few of them will claim the two candidates are as bad as each other or something like that and not really fight for Bernie.

At the moment, according to the betting odds on oddschecker, Sanders has a greater than 50% chance to win the nomination, Bloomberg at about 20%, and Mayor Pete and Biden are down at about 10%.

Elizabeth Warren is further back now. Biden and her have both been clearly in the lead at one stage, so it's been an interesting race.

Sadly after being as 50/50 for some time, Trump is now ahead and considered a bit better than 50/50 to win the next election. Anyway, that's what the markets say for now.

They could easily be nonsense, but it's the best estimate we have for those who care.

One concern would be if Sanders wins and has recurrent health issues during the campaign.

 

[Blues]

https://s2.washingtonpost.com/1e783...C5jb20=/1/10/17d982b36d8c1ccc1a46956a816da81f

I think there will be following Tom Steyer soon.

 

[Andy_T]

At the moment, according to the betting odds on oddschecker, Sanders has a greater than 50% chance to win the nomination, Bloomberg at about 20%, and Mayor Pete and Biden are down at about 10%.

That was likely before the SC primary.
As in 2016, a state that is deeply red and has no chance in hell of ever delivering a single vote for a Democratic nominee in the Electoral college, upsets the Democratic primaries...

I personally do not think Biden would do well against Dump.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

That was likely before the SC primary.
As in 2016, a state that is deeply red and has no chance in hell of ever delivering a single vote for a Democratic nominee in the Electoral college, upsets the Democratic primaries...

I personally do not think Biden would do well against Dump.

Right now, odds checker is showing something like:
Biden 50%-60% to win
Sanders 30%-40%
Bloomberg 5%-10%
Others 5%-10%

Another major swing, this time in favour of Biden. I'm not sure if that is factoring in any exit polls from today or anything. Let's have another look at the odds tomorrow.

 

[Andy_T]

Interesting analysis:

 

[Poppy]

I personally do not think Biden would do well against Dump.

I'm afraid that would be true as well. So my question is this - why debate? If you can't win, why get in the battle? I think one of the reasons I've been so disappointed in the democratic presidential contenders has been because there have been too many debates - which have also been poorly run. When you have a debate every 3-4 weeks, have limited time within which to speak and make your case heard, and then also have to "land punches" on your opponents, it all just becomes a canned response slugfest. The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for this mess.

 

[PTree15]

I'm afraid that would be true as well. So my question is this - why debate? If you can't win, why get in the battle? I think one of the reasons I've been so disappointed in the democratic presidential contenders has been because there have been too many debates - which have also been poorly run. When you have a debate every 3-4 weeks, have limited time within which to speak and make your case heard, and then also have to "land punches" on your opponents, it all just becomes a canned response slugfest. The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for this mess.

I could not agree more. I'm not optimistic at all that anyone in the field can beat the occupier of the White House.

 

[Amy SF]

 

[Andy_T]

I remember this day in 2016 so well. (when we all realized that Hillary was going to win the nomination)

The difference is, then I only had that an unspecified feeling of dread, now I actually know what will happen.

There are so many people in my Facebook feed (vegans, no less) who are delirious with joy that finally a centrist candidate managed to defeat the evil Socialist, and think that this is about as good as beating Dump in November. I hope for them (and the rest of the world) that this is not the closest we will ever get to that.

Spoiler: Don't worry, I won't come back to tell you I told you so.

Pennsylvania.

Michigan.

Wisconsin.

Spoiler: But then ...

Maybe we all are lucky and by November, Coronavirus has decimated the constituency that believes praying is the best medicine more than the constituency that washes their hands...

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Any Dem will do indeed! Basically spot on analysis in the form of a song.

Let's be more positive. There is no inevitable defeat here. This is a 50/50 battle. For those in the US, vote against Trump, convince a friend to do so, throw a few quid to the Democrats in a donation, get campaigning, go on a protest march. All to play for. The rest of the world is counting on you!

Biden-Trump TV debates would be painful to watch by the way. Since I last posted the odds are more like Biden 70-80%, Sanders 20-25%, and the rest should arguably all pull out at this point.

 

[PTree15]

I remember this day in 2016 so well. (when we all realized that Hillary was going to win the nomination)

The difference is, then I only had that an unspecified feeling of dread, now I actually know what will happen.

There are so many people in my Facebook feed (vegans, no less) who are delirious with joy that finally a centrist candidate managed to defeat the evil Socialist, and think that this is about as good as beating Dump in November. I hope for them (and the rest of the world) that this is not the closest we will ever get to that.

Spoiler: Don't worry, I won't come back to tell you I told you so.

Pennsylvania.

Michigan.

Wisconsin.

Spoiler: But then ...

Maybe we all are lucky and by November, Coronavirus has decimated the constituency that believes praying is the best medicine more than the constituency that washes their hands...

Centrists just maintain the status quo, and that is not what this country needs. It's so frustrating! We have a health care system that is about to implode and a need to do something substantial about climate change, among other things. Joe Biden is not going buck the insurance industry or other powerful lobbies working against climate change and the environment. I know Bernie Sanders seems extreme, but you have to start somewhere. He may not get what he wants done, as I suspect many in Congress also won't side with him, but maybe we'll end up with something more palatable than what we have now. Everyone is so worried about losing what they have. Middle class people don't realize that once the poor are really tapped out, they'll be the next target. As long as the wealthy (with no desire to see those "below" them succeed) keep running things, average Joes are screwed.

 

[PTree15]

Any Dem will do indeed! Basically spot on analysis in the form of a song.

Let's be more positive. There is no inevitable defeat here. This is a 50/50 battle. For those in the US, vote against Trump, convince a friend to do so, throw a few quid to the Democrats in a donation, get campaigning, go on a protest march. All to play for. The rest of the world is counting on you!

Biden-Trump TV debates would be painful to watch by the way. Since I last posted the odds are more like Biden 70-80%, Sanders 20-25%, and the rest should arguably all pull out at this point.

IMHO, the problem is that if Biden gets the nomination, Sanders supporters will walk away from the party and either not vote or sadly, vote for Trump. I know at least two Bernie supporters who did this in 2016 because they wanted no part of Hillary Clinton, whom the DNC shoved down Democrats' throats. It seems the DNC has not learned from 2016. This party-first mentality has to stop.

I wish I could be more optimistic, but I'm just not feeling it.

 

[Andy_T]

I read somewhere that he gets the „Trickle-Down Obama Vote“, and that is probably a fair characterisation...

 

[Andy_T]

But enough with the personal attacks, let's look at issues instead.






But we had this earlier, did we not?

 

[Second Summer]

^^ I'm no Biden fan, but I really don't think that is a completely fair representation of his program. There is a world of difference between Biden and Trump as president.

If you're eligible to vote in the upcoming US election, and you don't want the US to turn into a fascist dictatorship, then you'd better get out there and vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. Similarly, vote for a Democrat for the Senate.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Yeah there is a big gap between Biden and Trump. At least with Biden you'll probably get half hearted action on climate change, rather than none at all. And imagine the effect on young women to see that someone can be accused of sexual assaults and misdemeanors by 20 women and get elected again. Not to mention how minorities and vulnerable people feel under a Trump administration. Let's just get Trump's finger off the nuclear button. At least Biden would probably consult a few advisors and listen to what they say.

When the choice is between mediocre and very bad you should fight for mediocre as hard as you would fight for very good vs mediocre.

Biden also would be surrounded by mostly Democrats trying to convince him to do things, while Trump has Republicans. It's a big difference.

I'm hoping that Bernie supporters will just be more anti-Trump this time, and so vote for anyone but him. Obviously this makes more sense for the intellectual/urban/liberal/progressive cohort rather than the populist/anti establishment cohort, but either way.

 

[Andy_T]

I'm hoping that Bernie supporters will just be more anti-Trump this time, and so vote for anyone but him.

Please do away with this old, debunked trope.

"Bernie supporters" ... there are two kinds of these.

1) Democrat Bernie supporters who voted to a huge degree for Hillary in the last election, and even if those, who voted for Jill Stein instead had voted for Hillary, it still would not have been enough. They did NOT lose Hillary the election. They also will vote for "any blue" this election.

2) People who care nothing for the Democratic party, but who were willing to go to the polls for Bernie, because they hoped for true change. So they either stayed at home or voted for Dump, who also promised "change" of some sort.
Why did you expect these to come and vote for Hillary? What did she have to offer?

And, more importantly, what has Biden to offer to those (other than the real, tangible advantage of getting rid of Dump, which we did not have in 2016 and which will hopefully motivate many more to go out and vote this year)

That, in a nutshell, is what people who are genuinely anxious about Biden being the front-runner now are trying to tell you....

 

[silva]

At least I'm happy not to worry about whe

Please do away with this old, debunked trope.

"Bernie supporters" ... there are two kinds of these.

1) Democrat Bernie supporters who voted to a huge degree for Hillary in the last election, and even if those, who voted for Jill Stein instead had voted for Hillary, it still would not have been enough. They did NOT lose Hillary the election. They also will vote for "any blue" this election.

2) People who care nothing for the Democratic party, but who were willing to go to the polls for Bernie, because they hoped for true change. So they either stayed at home or voted for Dump, who also promised "change" of some sort.
Why did you expect these to come and vote for Hillary? What did she have to offer?

And, more importantly, what has Biden to offer to those (other than the real, tangible advantage of getting rid of Dump, which we did not have in 2016 and which will hopefully motivate many more to go out and vote this year)

That, in a nutshell, is what people who are genuinely anxious about Biden being the front-runner now are trying to tell you....

Truth.
Have people really overlooked the fact Obama picked Biden to get the old whitey vote?
Just what does Biden offer than back to the same old, same old?

 

[Chryssie]

Here is an interesting article:

Trump Beats Biden

The Democratic Party establishment has united behind the candidate who has failed at running for president for 32 years. Defender of banks and drug companies, Joe Biden is the swamp creature of Donald Trump’s dreams.

jacobinmag.com