The Weather.
- Thread starter Moll Flanders
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It's very chilly today. The forecast says that it's going to be sunny with a temperature of 7 °C.
Met Office Warnings Issued For: Greater London
Yellow warning of snow
From:
1100 on Sat 16 January
To:
0600 on Sun 17 January
Updated 5 hours ago
Outbreaks of sleet and snow will spread from the northwest on Saturday, initially into western Scotland, and then into parts of northwest England later in the day before reaching the Midlands and southern England during the evening and night. 1-3 cm snowfall is likely at low levels with 5-10 cm possible above 200 metres across western Scotland and Cumbria. Ice may prove an additional hazard in places.
Yellow warning of snow
From:
1100 on Sat 16 January
To:
0600 on Sun 17 January
Updated 5 hours ago
Outbreaks of sleet and snow will spread from the northwest on Saturday, initially into western Scotland, and then into parts of northwest England later in the day before reaching the Midlands and southern England during the evening and night. 1-3 cm snowfall is likely at low levels with 5-10 cm possible above 200 metres across western Scotland and Cumbria. Ice may prove an additional hazard in places.
ledboots
Peace
We've definitely had some really cold days but I will admit, it's kind of nice to have two days below freezing and then a 3-4 stretch (or more) where it's in the 40's. That way you don't feel like the cold is so unbearable like when you have freezing temps for weeks on end with no relief in sight. That's pretty much how it's been the past few years. At least people are getting a break this season. And there isn't that constant shoveling of snow and getting to the point where, if it snows one more time, you have no space left to put it all. I am still holding out for at least two snowfalls where we get a few inches, even if it's only 3-4.
I woke up to let the dogs out about 3am and it was snowing, but it wasn't settling on the ground.
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Winter in LaLaLand: 57 degrees at the moment with a predicted high of 64, which I imagine is nice and warm for most of you, although there's also a prediction of rain for Monday and Tuesday.
hungryraccoon
Forum Legend
It set here. But there wasn't much and it disappeared throughout the day. After us having one of the mildest winters on record up until December, with this change I feel bloody freezing!
Lol
Storm Brewing? Potential Storm Update 1
January 17, 2016 at 11:31 am
Posted by: hvw Leave a Comment
There have not been many posts with a title such as this one during the current winter season. Quite frankly, because there haven’t been many storm threats worth discussing. Rule number one is learn form the past, the past has taught us not stay grounded and be patient when the forecast models show a storm in the long range. We consider anything beyond 4 days to be the long range, weather forecasting becomes increasing fickle in the 5-7 day range. It becomes increasingly difficult for a forecaster in a storm-less winter to not pounce on every storm signal they see like a lion stalking a gazelle.
After much discussion between myself and Bill, we have decided that this once is worth stalking a bit more, not pouncing quite yet. Reason why we are stalking this storm is quite simple, model agreement/consistency, and the fact that by tonight or tomorrow the rumors will be flying anyway. As of this morning we have all major forecast models in alliance on the fact that a low pressure system will be along the East coast by the end of next week into the weekend. All models agree on the timing and all models agree on a significant snowfall in the Northeast. The reason we need to remain grounded is the detail of the strength and the exact track.
The biggest detail that will impact both the track and strength is the interaction between two pieces of energy, something we call a phase. If these two peices of energy phase to late we end of with a storm system that tracks further east, does not deepen to its full potential, is much more progressive with its track and focuses its precipitation to our South and East. On the other hand, if these two pieces of energy phase early we have a rapidly deepening Nor Easter with a track closer to the coast, much slower and the axis of heaviest snow pushes N and W and puts our region in the bullseye. The earlier phase is a snow lovers dream, this scenario puts storm going through rapid cyclogenesis, basically attacking a strong cold high pressure to the north, the result would be strong winds and snowfall amounts of 1-2 feet. The later phase is a decent storm, dropping a swath of respectable snowfall along the i95 corridor with our region in the 1-8 inches scenario.
As you can see, both potential outcomes have vast difference on the evolution of this storm, and with 5 1/2 days between us and this storm it will be important to stay grounded as we track its development. The ingredients that need to come together are not even on the playing field at this point, therefore the models still have a lot of data missing that is needed to come to the right conclusion. In closing, yes there is a storm brewing, yes it is one of the best shots we have had for a winter storm, yes it could be a major storm, but there are a lot of unanswered questions, this is update number one, there will be another update later tonight, and a daily update on this storm threat everyday going forward till it arrives or no longer exists. Everyone have a great day!
January 17, 2016 at 11:31 am
Posted by: hvw Leave a Comment
There have not been many posts with a title such as this one during the current winter season. Quite frankly, because there haven’t been many storm threats worth discussing. Rule number one is learn form the past, the past has taught us not stay grounded and be patient when the forecast models show a storm in the long range. We consider anything beyond 4 days to be the long range, weather forecasting becomes increasing fickle in the 5-7 day range. It becomes increasingly difficult for a forecaster in a storm-less winter to not pounce on every storm signal they see like a lion stalking a gazelle.
After much discussion between myself and Bill, we have decided that this once is worth stalking a bit more, not pouncing quite yet. Reason why we are stalking this storm is quite simple, model agreement/consistency, and the fact that by tonight or tomorrow the rumors will be flying anyway. As of this morning we have all major forecast models in alliance on the fact that a low pressure system will be along the East coast by the end of next week into the weekend. All models agree on the timing and all models agree on a significant snowfall in the Northeast. The reason we need to remain grounded is the detail of the strength and the exact track.
The biggest detail that will impact both the track and strength is the interaction between two pieces of energy, something we call a phase. If these two peices of energy phase to late we end of with a storm system that tracks further east, does not deepen to its full potential, is much more progressive with its track and focuses its precipitation to our South and East. On the other hand, if these two pieces of energy phase early we have a rapidly deepening Nor Easter with a track closer to the coast, much slower and the axis of heaviest snow pushes N and W and puts our region in the bullseye. The earlier phase is a snow lovers dream, this scenario puts storm going through rapid cyclogenesis, basically attacking a strong cold high pressure to the north, the result would be strong winds and snowfall amounts of 1-2 feet. The later phase is a decent storm, dropping a swath of respectable snowfall along the i95 corridor with our region in the 1-8 inches scenario.
As you can see, both potential outcomes have vast difference on the evolution of this storm, and with 5 1/2 days between us and this storm it will be important to stay grounded as we track its development. The ingredients that need to come together are not even on the playing field at this point, therefore the models still have a lot of data missing that is needed to come to the right conclusion. In closing, yes there is a storm brewing, yes it is one of the best shots we have had for a winter storm, yes it could be a major storm, but there are a lot of unanswered questions, this is update number one, there will be another update later tonight, and a daily update on this storm threat everyday going forward till it arrives or no longer exists. Everyone have a great day!
Don't worry, not counting my chickens before they hatch, just having some fun. [emoji4]
But, yeah...
...
