This is why I'm such a freak with snow forecasts. This morning they changed to 5-8 inches and now I check the website again and find this:
** Preliminary Snowfall Forecast: Tuesday Nor'easter **
Timing:
- Snow begins between 1am and 5am on Tuesday
- Snow falls heavily from 6am to 12pm
- Snow tapers to snow showers between 1pm and 5pm Tuesday
Impacts:
- Snowfall rates of 1 to 4 inches per hour
- Thundersnow possible
- Wind Gusts over 35mph, blowing and drifting snow
- Near white out conditions, near zero visibility at times
- Substantial blowing and drifting of snow (several feet)
- Extremely difficult travel, potential for road closures
Snowfall Totals:
- Majority of the Hudson Valley: 12 to 24 inches (locally 24"+)
- Eastern Catskills, Highlands: 18 to 30 inches possible
Discussion...
You are not hallucinating... that does say 12 to 24 inches. A major east coast storm is going to develop late on Monday, and move up the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The storm will undergo bombogenesis, and intensify rapidly as it moves north. It is likely to hug the coast until it reaches NJ, and then push northeast toward Cape Cod. The track further east now appears very unlikely.
This scenario is the perfect setup for the Hudson Valley to see a major snowfall. This storm track will force tremendous amounts of moisture into our region, that will fall in the form of snow. Tremendous upward motion will translate into intense snowfall rates. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3... possibly 4 inches per hour are possible. Thundersnow is also possible, as this storm deepens and intensifies. Winds will howl out of the NE at 10 to 25mph, gusting over 35mph and 40mph at the height of the storm. That will cause tremendous blowing and drifting of the snow, making travel virtually impossible at times on Tuesday. Snow drifts of several feet will be possible. This storm has the potential to bring the Hudson Valley to a stand still on Tuesday.
To be clear... the odds of this storm missing the Hudson Valley entirely are basically zero. The exact track of this storm system will determine whether the snowfall amounts are closer to 12 inches, or 24 inches. The potential with this system is so great, that snow totals on the higher end of this range would not surprise us. HVW is now in 'Storm Mode', that means we will continue to monitor every aspect of this storm, and provide regular updates all the way from now until the end of this storm. This storm has serious potential, Hudson Valley... it could be one of the biggest in recent history.