UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

[Second Summer]

Brexit day is next Friday, and time is running out. The prime minister is moaning about parliament because they won't approve her deal, and they in turn are upset because she won't consider a different kind of deal. Meanwhile, the EU has said they won't approve a short delay unless the UK parliament approves the deal, but the UK parliament speaker has ruled the deal can't be voted on again in this parliament session. However, I'm not convinced these positions can't be changed. I think the EU position is really up to the 27 other EU countries to decide at the summit, not Donald Tusk, and the parliament speaker could perhaps be persuaded to allow another vote due to the severity of the situation. But I think the deal will be defeated again a third time, and after that there might be a vote of no confidence in the prime minister which at this point she might lose. Which could lead to a government of national unity of remainers (remainer Tories + all the other parties except DUP) who will revoke article 50 in the eleventh hour before Brexit Day.

This is just speculation, of course. It seems anything can still happen: Brexit delay (long or short), deal accepted + short Brexit delay, a long delay + a second referendum, article 50 revoked by parliament, or leaving without a deal either on next Friday or after a short delay.

 

[Second Summer]

So the EU27 leaders at the EU summit have agreed to postpone Brexit until 22nd May if the government's deal is accepted by parliament, and until 12th April if not. So it will be a fairly short delay if the deal is defeated again, which I think seems likely given the numbers with which it was defeated previously.

 

[Andy_T]

The question remains, what Theresa May hopes to accomplish in 6 weeks that she could not accomplish in the last 3 years

 

[Second Summer]

The question remains, what Theresa May hopes to accomplish in 6 weeks that she could not accomplish in the last 3 years

To be fair, she didn't actually have a negotiated deal with the EU until late last year, if I remember correctly.

Her strategy now seems to be to scare MPs into accepting her deal because otherwise the even worse alternative might prevail. What is worse than her deal varies depending on who you ask, of course: no deal is worse if you ask remainers, and revoking article 50 is worse if you ask hard brexiteers. There is some support for a second referendum amongst both remainers and no-dealers, but that is not what the government wants, and the Labour leadership is only lukewarm on that idea.

 

[Second Summer]

I can't believe the hypocrisy of some so-called 'hard brexiteers' who have said they will now support the government's withdrawal agreement because the PM has promised to resign if the deal is passed. If the deal was so terrible before, how does the PM's resignation change anything?

I suppose they can argue this might give them more of a say on future negotiations on a trade deal, but I'm sure the idea that they could be sitting in the PM's chair in just a few weeks also has some appeal.

 

[Second Summer]

Interview with professor of contemporary British history, Peter Hennessy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1111238337493430275

 

[Second Summer]

The government's withdrawal agreement has been defeated for the third time in parliament. The PM's future is looking bleak.
MPs reject May's EU withdrawal agreement (29. March 2019)

Parliament will have another round of so-called indicative votes on Monday, as no alternative won an outright majority last time. I guess on Monday they will remove the least popular alternatives, and then those who voted on those alternative will pick one of the remaining ones, and hopefully that will produce a majority for something. Otherwise the country will be crashing out without a deal on 12. April.

We live in interesting times - I think they will definitely talk about this in future history books ...

 

[Second Summer]

Just like last week, the PM has apparently asked her cabinet ministers to boycott today's indicative votes whereas junior ministers and backbenchers are given a free vote, i.e. can vote whatever they want.

Last week's indicative voting saw a customs union solution lose by only 6 votes, and that was with both the LibDems and SNP abstaining. So tonight, we could see a majority for a customs union 'soft Brexit'. Apparently, EU spokespeople have said they would also be very happy with this solution. If the PM allows it, and that is a big 'if', this could mean the UK would be able to leave on the 22. May, the government's Brexit deal would be amended slightly (the 'political declaration' part), and the UK would not have to organise upcoming costly EU parliament elections.

A customs union solves the Irish backstop issue, but will anger some, in particular the conservative side of the Conservative party.

 

[Second Summer]

The customs union proposal was defeated again, but only by 3 votes this time. 5 Lib Dem MPs, all 10 from the new so-called independent group, and the Green MP all voted against it, whereas SNP abstained again.

The other three proposals were also defeated.

A third round of indicative voting is scheduled for Wednesday.

How did my MP vote on Brexit indicative votes?

 

[Second Summer]

I don't even know what's happening in parliament and the cabinet now. Apparently, last night the indicative voting came to an end, though they managed to pass one actual bill - a binding motion that the UK should not leave the EU without a deal. I guess that is something.

Meanwhile, May is talking to Corbyn, and if they can agree on anything, which is a major "if", then that means a softer Brexit than what the government had negotiated.

Whether Brexit will be delayed further is also still a very distinct possibility.

I think I'm finally getting a bit bored with this topic ...!

 

[Brian W]

I think I'm finally getting a bit bored with this topic ...!

I'll be glad when it is over too but for now I have a vested interest. Thank you for your useful summaries Indian Summer.

 

[Second Summer]

I'll be glad when it is over too but for now I have a vested interest. Thank you for your useful summaries Indian Summer.

Oh good, I thought I was boring people with this! I will try to resume my Brexit summaries and ramblings later

 

[Andy_T]

Another option

 

[Second Summer]

I think it's time to face up to the reality that if we really do want to avoid a hard border between N.I. and the Republic, then the only type of Brexit possible is the very softest kind where both goods and people can continue to flow freely between the UK and the EU.

The backstop 'solution' is just postponing an actual decision and is confusing the picture.

Any kind of special solution that involves just N.I. and not the whole UK is seen as a first step of ceding N.I. to Ireland, so that idea is probably not going to work.

So that means the whole of the UK will have to have the same kind of arrangement with the EU. If I understand correctly, that means both a customs union with regulatory alignment with the EU, and the UK must be in the EU's single market (same/similar as the EEA agreement).

The UK will give up it's voting rights in the EU, but will not gain any independence that I can think of ...? It seems a bit pointless.

 

[Second Summer]

On a personal note, I'm trying to apply for so-called "settled status" here in the UK, but the app we're supposed to use is proving to be quite difficult to use. I'm supposed to use the app to take a photo of my passport, but it's refusing to actually take the photo ... I've been advised by a colleague to work on getting the lighting just right to avoid any glare, so I will try to do that.

 

[Brian W]

On a personal note, I'm trying to apply for so-called "settled status" here in the UK, but the app we're supposed to use is proving to be quite difficult to use. I'm supposed to use the app to take a photo of my passport, but it's refusing to actually take the photo ... I've been advised by a colleague to work on getting the lighting just right to avoid any glare, so I will try to do that.

It seems I'm safe. I sent a query to Migrationsverket and they replied. "If you already meet the requirements for how long you should have lived here to apply, Brexit should not influence you." I still have to research working here though.

 

[Second Summer]

A nice graph I came across on Twitter - I think it shows which Brexit outcome every MPs has voted for in the 'indicative voting':

https://twitter.com/x/status/1112129120211791872

Basically, it's fairly chaotic and as we already know, no single Brexit outcome has a majority amongst MPs, and this is presumably also the case amongst voters.

 

[Andy_T]

Interesting comment ...



At last, Brexit explained in two words: Basil Fawlty | Alex Clark

 

[Amy SF]

Brexiteer to Irish backstop: a handy Brexit glossary

 

[Second Summer]

The EU has given the UK another extension so the parliament can continue trying to find a majority for some type of Brexit. Unfortunately, while it's a relatively long extension, until the end of October, that's not really long enough to organise a second referendum or a general election.

Apparently, this is Macron's fault, as he had been pushing for an even shorter extension whereas the other EU leaders wanted a slightly longer extension, and so they ended up with this very suboptimal compromise.

Anyway, now we have many more months of uncertainty ahead of us, and the Brexit chaos will continue.

Meanwhile, a poll shows that the Conservatives have lost as much as 10 percentage points in support. Many of their voters have gone to UKIP and Farage's new Brexit party. So if there were a general election now with the conservative vote split between several parties and thanks to the 'first-past-the-post' electoral system, the result could be a Labour government.