Possibly a sweetened version of the government's deal which includes e.g. provisions for workers' rights and promises to adhere to environmental standards. It could also included further assurances from the E.U. regarding the N.I. backstop and maybe changes to the declaration about the future trading relationship, though this would require another E.U. summit, and would not be easy to achieve.
In a sense, the negotiations are still ongoing - yesterday's vote was part of that.
The 'no confidence' vote result yesterday was continued confidence in the government: 325 - 306.
They debated for six hours before the vote, and I caught a few minutes of this debate. I heard Tom Watson, the Labour deputy leader, and then part of Michael Gove's response. Gove is definitely one of the government's strongest cards. I came across a full transcript of his response here.
They debated for six hours before the vote, and I caught a few minutes of this debate. I heard Tom Watson, the Labour deputy leader, and then part of Michael Gove's response. Gove is definitely one of the government's strongest cards. I came across a full transcript of his response here.
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I don't think that's where we're heading in the first instance, and I don't think there is a majority for that option in parliament at the moment. I think what will be attempted first is to get enough conservative + DUP MPs on board with a modified version of the government's deal, probably one where they'll do something creative about the N.I. backstop. That will probably mean they have to go back to the E.U. to re-negotiate, and extend the Article 50 deadline. However, the E.U. may simply refuse to re-negotiate, and then the government may be in trouble. At that point, the idea of a second referendum may be resurrected as a way to avoid a split in the Conservative party.
The PM has 3 working days (on Monday) to present her plan B to parliament. It will be voted on the 29 th January. I would imagine that if it fails to get through, the government will request that Article 50 is extended.
Regardless if a deal is agreed on, the law states that the UK leaves the EU on the 29 th March.
The Conservative party is already divided and Corbyn is going to request another No Confidence vote.
I also don't see any reason why the EU would agree to an extension of the Article 50 deadline - it would only draw out the uncertainty. It's been two and a half years since the referendum, and internally GB is no further along than the day after the referendum.
I think it depends on the purpose of delaying the deadline. If the purpose is to have another referendum, then I think the E.U. wouldn't mind, as it could mean that Brexit gets cancelled. If the purpose is to negotiate further, then I'm less sure. Uncertainty might be preferable to the chaos of a 'no deal' Brexit, which would affect the E.U. as well as the U.K.
It seems like events are playing out much like I predicted ...
Except it seems like there could be a possibility (or risk!) that the government will side with the hard Brexiteers who are proposing to support the government's deal if the backstop becomes time limited. And the E.U. negotiator has said that is out of the question. Then they could go on like this, playing "hard ball" with the E.U., threatening to leave without a deal unless the E.U. agrees, with the deadline fast approaching. This makes 'no deal' a very real possibility. See e.g.: Brexit: Michel Barnier rules out backstop time limit in May blow
However, there is now a bill being put forward from a Labour MP (Yvette Cooper again) to make 'no deal' impossible. I'm not sure how the numbers will stack up on that one, but it might get a majority if Brexit-moderate Conservatives get behind it.
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It seems like events are playing out much like I predicted ...
See e.g.: Brexit: Michel Barnier rules out backstop time limit in May blow
However, there is now a bill being put forward from a Labour MP (Yvette Cooper again) to make 'no deal' impossible. I'm not sure how the numbers will stack up on that one, but it might get a majority if Brexit-moderate Conservatives get behind it.
Perhaps they should hire you as a most needed Brexit analyst ?
Typical about the the future bill making a 'No Deal' impossible.
It was parliament who voted it in the first place. Parliament should get their act together and stop this nonsense of continually disagreeing over every single matter, as the country's future is at stake.
Nobody knows what will happen on the 29 th !!
Today was a busy Brexit day in the Commons (the 'lower' yet more important chamber of the UK parliament). A total of 5 amendments (or was it 7?) to the government's deal were debated and voted on.
The 'Cooper' amendment that I mentioned in my previous post, was defeated. This amendment aimed to make the government seek an extension to the article 50 deadline in order to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit in the event that a deal is still looking unlikely when the deadline approaches. See e.g.: MPs reject plan to stop no-deal Brexit in March (29. Jan. 2018)
However, another amendment by Tory MP Dame Caroline Spelman, which sounds quite similar, did win the support of MPs. The other amendment which also passed was put forward by Tory MP Sir Graham Brady and asked for 'alternative arrangements' to the Irish backstop. However, neither amendment is binding.
So now 'no deal' is looking increasingly likely as the government is apparently going to engage in a game of chicken with the EU. It's an incredible position for a country such as the UK to find itself in.
The 'Cooper' amendment that I mentioned in my previous post, was defeated. This amendment aimed to make the government seek an extension to the article 50 deadline in order to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit in the event that a deal is still looking unlikely when the deadline approaches. See e.g.: MPs reject plan to stop no-deal Brexit in March (29. Jan. 2018)
However, another amendment by Tory MP Dame Caroline Spelman, which sounds quite similar, did win the support of MPs. The other amendment which also passed was put forward by Tory MP Sir Graham Brady and asked for 'alternative arrangements' to the Irish backstop. However, neither amendment is binding.
So now 'no deal' is looking increasingly likely as the government is apparently going to engage in a game of chicken with the EU. It's an incredible position for a country such as the UK to find itself in.
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IS, one question on that ... is it correct (I think I heard that on German radio= that one of the options for the vote was to have another referendum?
If so, why was that voted down? Sounds like a sensible approach to me...
There were 7 amendments and only 2 were passed ; Spelman and Brady.
There is no question of having a 2 nd referendum. As it stands the UK will leave the EU on the 29 th March.
No, but there were proposed amendments not selected by the speaker for debate and voting, or that were withdrawn, that both seeked to have another referendum, and to simply stop Brexit now. See this page for more details:
Full list: amendments to May’s statement on defeat of her Brexit bill
Here's an idea that's being put forward to end the stalemate in parliament: If there's another vote on the government's withdrawal deal with the EU, MPs should back it, or at least not vote against (so abstain), on the condition that the deal will be voted on in a referendum where the other option would be staying in the EU. Yes, a second referendum, but this could be the only way for the government's deal to become reality and avoid the 'no deal' scenario.
Source: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock (9. Feb. 2019)
The other thing that's happening at the moment is that the Labour leader and the prime minister are writing letters to each other. It would be quite surprising if they would come to an kind of agreement.
Source: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock (9. Feb. 2019)
The other thing that's happening at the moment is that the Labour leader and the prime minister are writing letters to each other. It would be quite surprising if they would come to an kind of agreement.
