UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

[Second Summer]

Some possible scenarios for what might happen if May's deal is voted down in Parliament:

What happens next if Theresa May's Brexit deal is voted down? (4. Dec. 2018)

Sounds to me like May is planning for a snap general election. She's been on a campaign around the country recently, trying to secure support for the deal in the electorate.

Of course, May could be forced out before she can make that happen.

 

[Mischief]

That turned out to be somewhat exaggerated! Looks like the rebellion has been crushed for now.

I continue to be a little bit amazed at May's ability to keep going despite the election disaster, the split between the two blocks in her party, the impossible task of negotiating a Brexit deal that will satisfy a majority of MPs and keep Northern Ireland a part of the Union ...

I think that no one wants the PM job at the moment, and why would they?! Anyone who is at the helm during this period, until the Brexit issue is resolved one way or the other, will end up going down in infamy. There's no good way out of this debacle for any PM. It has been an ill conceived mess from the beginning.

 

[Second Summer]

Things are happening fast on the Brexit front, with the government suffering a series of losses in Parliament, the European Court of Justice’s advocate general says the UK does not need approval of other EU countries to withdraw from Brexit, and Farage resigning his membership of UKIP.

The Independent's chief political correspondent John Rentoul sums it up gleefully in this short video:

I think that no one wants the PM job at the moment, and why would they?! Anyone who is at the helm during this period, until the Brexit issue is resolved one way or the other, will end up going down in infamy. There's no good way out of this debacle for any PM. It has been an ill conceived mess from the beginning.

Maybe so. I do think there are a number of Conservatives who would line up once May has been voted out as party leader, but I suspect despite everything, for the moment May has the support of the majority of Conservative MPs behind her because her deal, while bad for the country, is probably the only vaguely realistic option for actually exiting the EU.

 

[Andy_T]

 

[Andy_T]

Interesting.

 

[Second Summer]

The European Court of Justice has ruled that the U.K. can unilaterally withdraw it's Article 50 and cancel Brexit, and not only that, it can do so even after the transition period has been extended. The transition period may have to be extended e.g. if the U.K. needs to have more time to hold a second referendum.

Also, I'm reading that tomorrow's vote in Parliament is going to be postponed. (I.e. the vote on the current deal which is championed by Theresa May's government, but doesn't have much support in Parliament, which means the government will be defeated on a major issue, which may trigger the PM's downfall ....)

 

[shyvas]

The European Court of Justice has ruled that the U.K. can unilaterally withdraw it's Article 50 and cancel Brexit, and not only that, it can do so even after the transition period has been extended. The transition period may have to be extended e.g. if the U.K. needs to have more time to hold a second referendum.

Also, I'm reading that tomorrow's vote in Parliament is going to be postponed. (i.e. the vote on the current deal which is championed by Theresa May's government, but doesn't have much support in Parliament, which means the government will be defeated on a major issue, which may trigger the PM's downfall ....)

You have skipped a few steps before that scenerio could happen. Parliament is in a chaos and neither leader is doing a good job. I don't think that neither Corbyn or May have the right solution on how to deal with Brexit. The government had two years of negotiations with the EU to settle on how to exit the latter. What did the Brexit minister and team actually achieve during this period ?

What Happens If Parliament Votes Against the Deal ?

"We cannot say and it's incredibly complicated.

If Parliament rejects the deal, the UK's Withdrawal Act explains what the government must do next.
It would have up to 21 days to make a statement to MPs about how it intends to proceed. Then, there would then be a seven-day period when it lays its proposals before Parliament.

But in an important vote in the House of Commons recently, MPs voted for changes to the parliamentary process if
Theresa May loses the vote. They backed calls to give them a direct say in what happens if Mrs May's deal is rejected next week.
Instead of MPs just "taking note" of what the government tells them, they would also be able to exert more influence by voting on what they want the government to do next."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/45589251

 

[Second Summer]

It has finally come to this - the 48 letters are in, and there will be a vote of no confidence (secret ballot) in Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party, and effectively prime minister, tonight between 6 and 8 pm. However:

If Mrs May is ousted as Conservative leader later she would be expected to stay on as a caretaker prime minister until a new leader is selected by the party, a process that could take six weeks.

Theresa May faces no confidence vote (12. Dec. 2018)
Six weeks is quite a long time in U.K. politics at the moment. If May wins the confidence vote, by the party rules she's safe for another year.

 

[Andy_T]

Have we had this yet?

 

[Second Summer]

So May survived the party confidence vote, protecting her from another such vote for another year, but, in order to win broader sorry before the vote, she made the concession that she won't run as PM at the next scheduled general election.

Political editor of BBC News, Laura Kuenssberg, thinks that far from this vote settling the matter, the party is now in a state of war:

Brexit: War breaks out in Conservative Party (13. Dec. 2018)

 

[Second Summer]

PM Theresa May is allegedly planning a series of votes in Parliament where MPs get to vote on the various solutions: No deal, maybe a second referendum, and so forth, and then, when these votes have failed, because she thinks they will all fail, they will get to vote on her own deal, and hopefully they will then support it. Source: May 'to hold series of Brexit votes' (19. Dec. 2018)

 

[Second Summer]

I can't believe 'No Deal' is being seriously considered, but maybe from the government's side this is just a negotiating tactic, as the government is still attempting to improve the conditions surrounding the so-called Irish backstop. It would surely plunge the country into chaos. I hope it's clear to MPs, if not for lay people, what they are voting for if they vote against the government's deal.

 

[Amy SF]

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/britons-now-vote-stay-eu-want-second-referendum-poll/

I don’t know why so many of them voted to leave in the first place.

 

[Second Summer]

There have been a couple votes in parliament recently, which sound sort of positive. If I understand correctly, they've decided that the government needs to publish its "plan B" within 3 days (instead of previously 21 days) if they lose (as expected) next week's vote on the government's Brexit deal with the EU. And there was also a vote tabled by Labour MP Yvette Cooper to amend a finance bill, which won 303 against 296:

Her proposal aims to restrict the Government's freedom to use the Bill to make tax changes linked to a no-deal Brexit without the "explicit consent" of Parliament.

Source: MPs defeat Government over no-deal Brexit tax powers (8. Jan. 2019)

According to the above article, "no deal" is the government's default position, but this doesn't have the support of parliament.

 

[Andy_T]

I don’t know why so many of them voted to leave in the first place.

It was more or less a dress rehearsal for the American Presidential Election....

Right down to the "I did not think my vote would matter, so I voted leave" crowd...
(with Americals less apologetic about it, though)

 

[shyvas]

There have been a couple votes in parliament recently, which sound sort of positive. If I understand correctly, they've decided that the government needs to publish its "plan B" within 3 days (instead of previously 21 days) if they lose (as expected) next week's vote on the government's Brexit deal with the EU. And there was also a vote tabled by Labour MP Yvette Cooper to amend a finance bill, which won 303 against 296:

Source: MPs defeat Government over no-deal Brexit tax powers (8. Jan. 2019)

According to the above article, "no deal" is the government's default position, but this doesn't have the support of parliament.

Jermey Hunt ( a born again Brexiteer) warns MPs that by not backing May's deal there could well be no Brexit. This would indeed be a blow to democracy.

Sky are doing a daily show , ""Around Britain Brexit"" and are interviewing the population on the subject. The nation is still divided and many of those who voted to leave would prefer a no deal than rather than stay in the EU.

Parliament is in chaos. Even the speaker showed that he was not impartial and received some criticism broom Tory backbenchers.
It would seem that May will have to step down if Brexit fails. However, Corburn is a Eurosceptic. So where does that leave the country ?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Brian W]

I don't think it would be a blow for democracy. We never used to be able to vote on individual issues yet we considered it a democracy because we could vote for government and local councils, so what has changed? Only our expectations. Besides which many, like me, would say that the original vote was undemocratic anyway on the grounds that info given by the government to the people wasn't accurate to say the least and it was reported that many British people overseas didn't get a chance to vote, even though it was their right to do so. I think democracy has already been undermined by the government's original deception!

 

[shyvas]

I don't think it would be a blow for democracy. We never used to be able to vote on individual issues yet we considered it a democracy because we could vote for government and local councils, so what has changed? Only our expectations. Besides which many, like me, would say that the original vote was undemocratic anyway on the grounds that info given by the government to the people wasn't accurate to say the least and it was reported that many British people overseas didn't get a chance to vote, even though it was their right to do so. I think democracy has already been undermined by the government's original deception!

I don't see it in that manner. The question was, Should the UK remain a member of the EU ? or should the UK leave
the EU ?

This is an argument that the remainers seem to voice because they want to change the initial results.

Once a UK citizen has resided abroad for 15 years, the right of vote is taken away. I know that is not the case in the US. Each country has their own set of rules.

 

[Brian W]

I don't see it in that manner. The question was Should the UK remain a member of the EU ? or should the UK leave
the EU ?

With some bribery added for good measure!

 

[Second Summer]

It's been a big Brexit day here today with debates in parliament which culminated in the defeat of the government's withdrawal agreement with the EU; 202 'ayes' versus 432 'noes'. This is supposedly the largest defeat of a U.K. government in history, and Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition (i.e. Labour), was quick to table a motion (*) of no confidence in the government once the result was clear. Parliament will vote on this on Wednesday at 7 pm. Despite today's historic defeat, based on what I've read it sounds more likely that the government will survive the confidence vote than not.

* I.e. put forward a motion - in American English to "table a motion" means to put it aside!