UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

[Mischief]

I wish the universe were fair and only those who make bad decisions had to live with the consequences. Unfortunately, they pull everyone else into the mess with them.

From the outside, it sure looks as though GB is heading to a no deal Brexit.

 

[shyvas]

Source: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock (9. Feb. 2019)

The other thing that's happening at the moment is that the Labour leader and the prime minister are writing letters to each other. It would be quite surprising if they would come to an kind of agreement.

A copy of TM's letter to JC.

Theresa May's letter to Jeremy Corbyn

 

[Second Summer]

Here's a video which claims a no-deal outcome is almost unavoidable at this point:

We're doomed!

 

[Second Summer]

The odds for a 'no deal' Brexit at two online betting sites I checked stand at 5/2 and 7/4. Though the odds for a second referendum are also quite high. (Assuming I'm reading the numbers correctly - I'm not a betting man.)

 

[Amy SF]

The wonderful John Oliver has been kind enough to explain Brexit to us clueless Americans. On his return to his HBO show after his holiday hiatus, he explained it again.

http://time.com

 

[Second Summer]

When Anna Soubry says that if she and her fellow Conservative defectors do their job properly there won’t be a Tory party, these are no idle words. For starters, they will soon get their chance to bring down the Conservative government.

More: Opinion: Just three more Tory defections and Theresa May’s government will finally collapse (21. Feb. 2019)

I'm not sure if that would lead to a general election, as I don't think the new Independent Group will want to support a Corbyn government.

 

[Second Summer]

Labour may end up supporting a second referendum, according to shadow chancellor John McDonell:

John McDonnell today said Labour is “moving towards” a second referendum on Brexit that would give Britons the chance to stay in the European Union.

Source: Labour 'moving towards People's Vote' says McDonnell (22. Feb. 2019)

There's an amendment being put forward in parliament by two Labour MPs that essentially proposes to support the government's withdrawal agreement on the condition it's being put to a binding referendum.

 

[Second Summer]

Labour is now backing a second referendum if they can't get their own style of Brexit, which, let's face it, they won't. It's not clear how much support there is for this in parliament, though ...

 

[Second Summer]

Reading today's news, it seems quite likely that the exit date could be delayed from 29. March to end of June in order to avoid an accidental 'no deal' Brexit. However, I'm not sure that leaves enough time for a second referendum.

Apparently, MPs will be able to vote on 'no deal' and a Brexit delay by 13. and 14. March, respectively.

 

[Second Summer]

Labour's soft Brexit plan was defeated in parliament, so their primary position is now a second referendum.

Meanwhile, EU leaders like Macron and Merkel have said they won't support a delay without a plan, i.e. they won't support a delay just so that the UK can continue to try and persuade the EU to remove the Irish backstop from the deal already made.

 

[Brian W]

Now I am seriously hoping for an agreement!

How should Brits in Sweden prepare for Brexit?

EDIT: or preferably a second referendum.

 

[shyvas]

Now I am seriously hoping for an agreement!

How should Brits in Sweden prepare for Brexit?

EDIT: or preferably a second referendum.

Can you apply for Swedish citizenship or have you not been married long enough ? I would imagine that there
would be some kind of solution as you are married and also employed.

Hopefully the deal will get through parliament on the 12 th. Last week it was looking promising and as of today, it's
not looking too good.

 

[Brian W]

Can you apply for Swedish citizenship or have you not been married long enough ? I would imagine that there
would be some kind of solution as you are married and also employed.

Hopefully the deal will get through parliament on the 12 th. Last week it was looking promising and as of today, it's
not looking too good.

We have been living as a couple for nearly four years, for three and a half I have been officially registered at the address and three years is required for citizenship. We married in Sept 2016 but that isn't important in this regard. I have sent off my application for citizenship and I am just awaiting a response. I am hoping I can work without a visa during the transition period if a decision is slow.

 

[shyvas]

We have been living as a couple for nearly four years, for three and a half I have been officially registered at the address and three years is required for citizenship. We married in Sept 2016 but that isn't important in this regard. I have sent off my application for citizenship and I am just awaiting a response. I am hoping I can work without a visa during the transition period if a decision is slow.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Second Summer]

It's going to be an exciting week in UK politics!

Today is the second vote on the government's withdrawal deal with the EU, now with further changes after last-minute negotiations. Labour is set to vote against it again, but some Tories who voted against it last time may now have changed their minds. It sounds like the experts think it's again a question of how large the defeat will be, not whether the deal will actually pass. If the defeat isn't too large (50 or less), there could be a third vote on it at some point. If it's a large defeat, then it could lead to May's downfall, maybe not right away, but as soon as the stars are aligned the right way for Gove to take over.

Assuming it's defeated today, then tomorrow is a vote on whether the UK should just leave without a withdrawal agreement, i.e. the 'no deal' option. I'm thinking this will also be defeated, based on MPs' earlier attitudes to this option.

Assuming that is the case, then there's a vote on Thursday about whether to seek a short delay to Brexit. This will have to be agreed with the EU, but they may propose a longer delay, in which case that proposal has to be voted on in parliament as well ...

We moved most of our UK savings into US dollars last night. Just as a precaution! I'm sure everything will be just fine in the end

Edit: Oh, and there is also the Labour amendment on agreeing to the government's agreement if there is a second referendum on it. I'm not sure when or if that amendment will be voted on, but it is Labour's primary stance at this point, I believe.

 

[Second Summer]

The government's deal was predictably defeated again, though this time the defeat was by 'only' 149 votes.

I think the only possible way this deal can pass now is if Labour puts forward their amendment to allow it on the condition of another referendum. That will require a Brexit delay, though, possibly a long one as a referendum needs lots of preparation.

 

[Andy_T]

Eddie Mair, a reporter from LBC Radio, grilled Conservative Cabinet minister Liz Truss over austerity, knife crime, Brexit and more.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury came under instant fire from the LBC presenter when he repeatedly asked her: "How have you personally been affected by austerity?"

She spoke to Eddie live from College Green in Westminster on Wednesday afternoon.

On Brexit, Ms Truss said any second referendum would be a “bad idea”.

Eddie asked: “People can change their minds, can’t they?”

The Tory frontbencher replied: “But they were told in the referendum in 2016 that their vote would be implemented.”

Eddie responded: “What about people who have changed their minds between then and now?"

To which Ms Truss said: “I don’t think people have changed their minds.”

“You have,” Eddie hit back.

“I have, that's true,” Ms Truss replied. "In the other way though.”

The wide-ranging interview sparked a big reaction from LBC listeners.

Read more (and hear the full interview) here:
Eddie Mair Grills Liz Truss Over Austerity, Brexit And More - LBC

 

[Brian W]

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury came under instant fire from the LBC presenter when he repeatedly asked her: "How have you personally been affected by austerity?"

Awesome question!

 

[Second Summer]

Last week was a monumental one in parliament: May's deal was overwhelmingly defeated a second time, a 'no deal' Brexit was narrowly ruled out (*) and finally a Brexit extension was approved.

Now the speculation is that the deal may be put forward again for a third time, possibly tomorrow, despite the two big defeats it has suffered previously. This is dependent on the government having some faith that it might pass this time around, and as the clock is running down and with the threat of a parliament election or a second Brexit referendum, it might just mean some hardline Brexiteer MPs will feel compelled to vote for the deal as otherwise there might not be a Brexit at all.

* - I must admit I was quite surprised at how narrowly the MPs ruled out 'no deal' - it was 312 votes to 308! I suppose some of them wanted to be able to have the option as a threat in negotiations with the EU.

Edit: The Parliament Speaker has ruled that the government's deal, as is, can't be put forward a third time:
Third Brexit vote must be different – Speaker (18. March 2019)

I also saw a rumour that Italy, which is currently ruled by EU-sceptic populists, might veto a Brexit delay as a favour to EU-sceptic Nigel Farage.

 

[Andy_T]

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