US Politics 2023

[silva]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/133o95g

As usual the comments are the best part

This one really sums it up:

I actually always assumed they would never actually pull the trigger on overturning row and going full. Christofacist. It made a wonderful tool to get their voters out. “Hey we need to defend babies or whatever, come out to vote!” Then they never really do anything, rinse and repeat.
Then the dog caught the car…. Now they don’t know what the **** they’re doing and they let the maniacs start to run the asylum. Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. Pick your analogy. They got exactly what they asked for, but I’m pretty sure none of the party leadership actually wanted it. It was was a convenient tool for them and didn’t realize they were reshaping their own party until it was too late and Trump was elected.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

There are some issues where the people are aligned with the Democrats, but there are also others where they are aligned with the Republicans (I would guess crime, immigration and some culture wars issues) but I haven´t seen recent polling data.

But also, the Republicans may not carry the majority of the people on the actual issues but they are better at agitating people. You know, getting people to vote against their own interests on health care and guns, for example, by manufacturing a few scare stories...Democrats are coming to close down your church and ban hamburgers, that sort of thing.

Plus the system is still slightly rigged to the Republicans because of the 2 senators per state rule and other factors.

So I am not as confident as you.

 

[Amy SF]

Can I whine a little here? I know Americans tend to blame the current president for everything, but all over the internet they’re now blaming Joe Biden for both Tuesday Morning and Bed, Bath and Beyond going out of business, and it’s raising my blood pressure. If you want to blame anyone for companies failing, blame yourself, duh. Maybe PATRONIZE these businesses, and maybe they can actually STAY in business?

 

[Sax]

Lots of people say they don't want Biden to run again but they rarely offer an alternative.

Who has a realistic chance of defeating Biden in the primary and then Trump in the general?

 

[Lou]

I have been wondering why the Democrats didn't raise the debt ceiling last December while they were in the majority.

Then in my mail box this morning I got this from Heather Cox Richardson in her daily report.

Weirdly, Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) at a Senate Budget Committee hearing today blamed Democrats for not raising the debt ceiling themselves last year without help from the Republicans. Kate Riga of Talking Points Memo broke down this argument. If the Democrats had raised the debt ceiling through reconciliation, without Republican votes, Republicans would have insisted that it was the Democrats, not them, who had burdened the country with debt when, in fact, the Republicans added almost $8 trillion to the debt under Trump.​

Romney’s complaint amounts to berating the responsible Democrats for not protecting the country against the Republicans, who are willing to burn down the country. As Riga put it: “Darn you Democrats for not taking care of the debt ceiling then, because you knew we’d refuse to raise the limit unless you conceded to our demands, and look what a sticky spot we’re in now.”​

Not sure it answers my question adequately but ....

You can read her whole report here.

May 4, 2023

Today began with another story about yet more ties between Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas and Republican billionaire Harlan Crow. Joshua Kaplan, Justin Elliott, and Alex Mierjeski of ProPublica reported that Crow paid the private school tuition for Thomas’s grandnephew, to the tune of...

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

 

[Lou]

Lots of people say they don't want Biden to run again but they rarely offer an alternative.

Who has a realistic chance of defeating Biden in the primary and then Trump in the general?

I would vote for almost anyone over Trump. Maybe half the registered republican might too.
To paraphrase a famous quote, you could probably elect a grilled cheese sandwich if Trump is the only alternative.
There are a lot of Govenors and former governors who I think would have a decent shot.
but Biden is a proven commodity and for now the Dems main concern is Not to lose. Just like last time "Electability" is the top concern.
And no one can spell Hickenlooper or Inslee.
Also there would be price to pay to have Biden do a whole primary thing.

I think the Republicans with or without Trump are about to self -destruct.
Their main concern is to protect children from books??!!
children killed by books = 0
children killed by guns > 3000/year

 

[Chryssie]

I had to really bite my tongue and walk away from a co-worker today who was going on and on about how "this country needs Trump!" I will not get into a political debate with people I have to work closely with and I am afraid her delusional thinking is widespread.

 

[Lou]

as of today, less than half the people polled like Trump.
That's true in Fl too
here in Ca its just a little over a third.

Another poll had him down to 25%

 

[Chryssie]

That's encouraging anyway!

 

[Lou]

Besides.
He''ll be in jail by then.

 

[silva]

I would vote for almost anyone over Trump. Maybe half the registered republican might too.
To paraphrase a famous quote, you could probably elect a grilled cheese sandwich if Trump is the only alternative.
There are a lot of Govenors and former governors who I think would have a decent shot.
but Biden is a proven commodity and for now the Dems main concern is Not to lose. Just like last time "Electability" is the top concern.
And no one can spell Hickenlooper or Inslee.
Also there would be price to pay to have Biden do a whole primary thing.

I think the Republicans with or without Trump are about to self -destruct.
Their main concern is to protect children from books??!!
children killed by books = 0
children killed by guns > 3000/year

We can truly blame the democrats for putting rump on the ticket in the first place--you know, cause Hillary could so easily beat him
Lets not make that mistake again...please...
The democrats in power now would rather have a facist than a socialist, which is exactly why we're in such a mess
Is Biden a proven commodity?

 

[Second Summer]

as of today, less than half the people polled like Trump.
That's true in Fl too
here in Ca its just a little over a third.

Another poll had him down to 25%

'Less than half' is still sufficient to win an election, mainly thanks to the electoral college, right? Also, they can scare Rep voters to come out and vote while potential Dem voters sit on the fence.

 

[Brian W]

Besides.
He''ll be in jail by then.

Do you not learn the lessons of history?

 

[Lou]

'Less than half' is still sufficient to win an election, mainly thanks to the electoral college, right?

Yes....but....

Also, they can scare Rep voters to come out and vote while potential Dem voters sit on the fence.

well what about Dems who are scared of Trump and MAGA republicans. I sure am. hadn't gone on a March since Vietnam and now I've been on more than a handful. I've also traveled out of my district to work on congressional candidates in red districts (my one district is deep blue). Never did that before. And I've worked on quite a few letter campaigns too. Also new.

And I think it's not just me. The crazy republicans and they anti abortion bills have energized millennial women (who hardly voted before) to hit the polls.

But yeah. I know what you are referring to. I'm just optimistic.

 

[Lou]

Do you not learn the lessons of history?

History?

Even in this country we have a long and deep history of convicting and imprisoning elected or appointed officials. Since 2017, six federal politicians have been convicted and sentenced.

List of American federal politicians convicted of crimes - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In the USA we have yet to convict a president. But lots of other countries have. And not all of these were banana republics.

List of heads of government who were later imprisoned - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Lots of people say they don't want Biden to run again but they rarely offer an alternative.

Who has a realistic chance of defeating Biden in the primary and then Trump in the general?

I´m glad others are participating, it felt like me and Lou were just talking to ourselves for a while.

I´m not sure about the candidates vs Biden but if you stand and lose the Dems have lost nothing, and are back to where we are.

As to Trump, I seem to remember Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg polling fairly evenly vs Trump in head to heads. Biden was only slightly ahead, so well worth having some debates and TV interviews and polling, and see where we are at.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_buttigieg-6872.html#!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Yes, Sanders isn't going to run, but the broader point is that Biden only had a slight edge in the head to head against other candidates. Not enough to count everyone out.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I bet Donald Trump wins this rape trial coming up. Because, unless there is some surprise evidence, how can you prove it one way or another.

Looks like I was more wrong than right here. He was not found guilty of rape but he was found guilty of sexual assault and ordered to pay $5 million. I think I was imagining it would be a trial with a possible jail sentence where I could see it might have gone differently.

An interesting thing to come out of this trial is that he no longer claimed grab by the pussy video was locker room talk. If you find the video of his deposition and watch it, or the 1 to 2 minute clip, he more or less admitted that he kissed and touched women without consent. It's quite a troubling video that he openly admits it in a way.

 

[Lou]

Looks like I was more wrong than right here.

Judging by how fast the jury can to a conclusion - it probably wasn't even close.
IMHO, His video disposition pretty much clinched it for the plaintiff. He never actaully came out and said he didn't do it. He just said something like he couldn't remember doing it. plus the access Hollywood tape, plus all the other women.

The other thing about Biden running. I may not be that good at guessing what the typical republican voter is thinking about - but the GOP keeps coming down on the wrong side of issues - that has got to eventually mean something.

 

[PTree15]

I had to really bite my tongue and walk away from a co-worker today who was going on and on about how "this country needs Trump!" I will not get into a political debate with people I have to work closely with and I am afraid her delusional thinking is widespread.

I agree that this delusional thinking is everywhere. Case in point: I was at a doughnut shop with my cousin (who is pretty right wing) and my dad, and my cousin was going on about the Democrats, etc., and this older couple came over and started talking to my cousin, agreeing with everything he was saying. Then two other women who were seated not far from us chimed in, too, saying Trump needs to be back in the White House.

Also, I heard a report on NPR about a poll that said 44% of respondents would vote for him for president. That's way too high a percentage, IMHO. Trumpism is alive and well, and I really hope it doesn't result in that man occupying the White House again.

 

[Lou]

George Santos has been indicted.

Thank NYT for the investigation.

Here is something to hope for. If he gets kicked out of congress before his term is up - The governor of NY gets to choose his replacement. and she is a Democrat.

I'm not holding my breath.