US Politics 2023

[Lou]

Trump's Town Hall

I didn't watch it but this morning I read the highlights.
The good news is he just provided 2 years worth of sound bites to the Democrat's advertising campaign. Really. They could probably make hundreds of one minute ads featuring his ridiculous rhetoric.

The bad news: it's really no longer about defeating him in the general. He needs to be stopped from running. He pretty much said that he would accept no other decision than his election. So what happens if Biden is declared a winner. He has already given us all the hints we need. It would tear this country up.

"And if he becomes the GOP nominee in 2024, Trump said Wednesday he would not commit to accepting the results regardless of the outcome, saying that he would do so if he believes “it’s an honest election.”"

Oh, and can Carole sue him again for defamation. How does that work?

 

[Lou]

Trump's Town Hall


Oh, and can Carole sue him again for defamation. How does that work?

Ha. I thought so. Well she is thinking about it. Good for her. Yeah, I'm sure she doesn't want to go thru this all again but it seems like an open and shut case.
Show the tape. defense rests.

E. Jean Carroll May Sue Trump a Third Time After ‘Vile’ Comments on CNN

In an interview, her lawyer said that the former president’s mocking comments in a town hall broadcast could create fresh legal jeopardy.

www.nytimes.com

 

[PTree15]

Trump's Town Hall

I didn't watch it but this morning I read the highlights.
The good news is he just provided 2 years worth of sound bites to the Democrat's advertising campaign. Really. They could probably make hundreds of one minute ads featuring his ridiculous rhetoric.

The bad news: it's really no longer about defeating him in the general. He needs to be stopped from running. He pretty much said that he would accept no other decision than his election. So what happens if Biden is declared a winner. He has already given us all the hints we need. It would tear this country up.

"And if he becomes the GOP nominee in 2024, Trump said Wednesday he would not commit to accepting the results regardless of the outcome, saying that he would do so if he believes “it’s an honest election.”"

Oh, and can Carole sue him again for defamation. How does that work?

I couldn't watch it. I'm so tired of him. He just needs to go away. He is all about division and chaos.

 

[Lou]

I know this viewpoint has gotten some news coverage but I think it needs to be stated more often.

The Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot.

Maybe it should be stated even more strongly: The Republicans are shooting themselves in the head.

They are not only going to lose the younger voters, they are going to activate them. We all know that many young people don't bother to vote. But the Republicans are giving them reasons to. And to vote against the GOP.

By the way, GenZ is about 20% of the pop- about the same as every other generation.

Why do I think they are alienating GenZ?

The latest is quashing the Dem's Student loan forgiveness plan.
That might be the last straw for some of them
The thing with Abortion is also important. Female GenZs have skin in that game.
I think the GOP'war on woke and LGBQT are also important factors.

 

[Sax]

The 20-somethings in my area (central Missouri) lean Republican, same as the older generations. I'm surprised at how vocally pro-Trump many of them are...and seem to be increasingly anti-trans. There's still a lot of homophobia too but I think they understand it's an irrational bigotry so it's not something I see anyone leaning into.

The GOP has definitely overstepped on abortion and I could see that hurting them with younger voters. But when I talk to younger people about politics the consistent theme is that both parties as basically equally corrupt and untrustworthy.

 

[Lou]

The 20-somethings in my area (central Missouri) lean Republican, same as the older generations.

Yeah, I may have underestimated that.
Does it all boil down to racism?

they understand it's an irrational bigotry so it's not something I see anyone leaning into.

I'm hoping that maybe when stuff starts to really affect them - they they start changing. But I may be underestimating the inertia.

when I talk to younger people about politics the consistent theme is that both parties as basically equally corrupt and untrustworthy.

I get that too.
There is that line from a movie: are you apathetic or ignorant?
I don't know and I don't care.

I think the GOP are making the mistake of hitting GenZs too hard and too often. But I am picturing a Gen Z in Brooklyn - not Missouri. These GOP antics probably don't make any kind of impact on someone with no student debt. they might even be against student debt forgiveness in principle because it doesn't benefit them.

And then they might also be pro-life and homophobic, too.

Thanks, Sax, for the bucket of cold water.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I think this line that the Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot is not backed up by anything like election results or polling numbers, it´s just wishful thinking.

True, these policies are probably going to make people unelectable in 10 years, but then they will just change their policies or there will be new more moderate Republicans then.

The US needs to somehow break this two party system (as well as somehow stop the radicalizing effect of social media). Ranked choice primaries, two rounds of voting for President. There needs to be a movement for change.

 

[Lou]

I think this line that the Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot is not backed up by anything like election results or polling numbers, it´s just wishful thinking.

Disagree.

But first I have to admit that @Sax made some good points and I do think I am over-estimating the effect. However I don't think I'm making this up.

Take for instance what happened in Kansas, one of the most conservative states, with voters rejecting a constitutional amendment that would ban abortion.

Or how about the liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court justice who pretty much got elected on her Pro-Choice platform.

And the lack of the Red Wave. Yes, Dems did lose the house, but they kept the Senate and more Democrats got elected than was predicted.

Here’s how abortion rights supporters won in conservative Kansas.

Turnout was high for a referendum that drew national attention.

www.nytimes.com

Liberal Wins Wisconsin Court Race, in Victory for Abortion Rights Backers

Janet Protasiewicz prevailed in the state’s highly consequential contest for the Supreme Court, which will now be likely to reverse the state’s abortion ban and end the use of gerrymandered legislative maps.

www.nytimes.com

The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP

Donald Trump’s favored candidates prove a drag to Republicans, running well behind others in their party.

www.politico.com

True, these policies are probably going to make people unelectable in 10 years, but then they will just change their policies or there will be new more moderate Republicans then.

Agree in principle but I'm not sure we are talking ten years. (I'm hoping two)
Also we should factor in the slow gradual incremental change in demographics. The country is becoming less white, and younger. And there are other population shifts that will not help the GOP.

The US needs to somehow break this two party system (as well as somehow stop the radicalizing effect of social media). Ranked choice primaries, two rounds of voting for President. There needs to be a movement for change.

agree. Not sure about multiple parties. Just looking at the headlines in countries that have parliaments - not sure if they have less problems.

But I would like to see some very basic changes to our government. The American territories and DC not be fully represented. Perhaps as a Californian I'm a little biased but how is it fair that the 20 smallest states have the same population as California but have 40 (!!) senators and we have just two.

The electoral college is skewered too. It would probably be better if Presidents got elected with a popular vote.

I think the solution to social media is a bottom up approach. Which in essence means better education. I can't remember... maybe it's Norway... where critical thinking is an extensive skill taught in every grade level.

 

[Sax]

GOP has definitely shot themselves in the foot on abortion. But the effect will probably lessen with time and they're already backpedaling into more palatable position so I think the longterm effect will be small compared to other cultural and economic concerns. Maybe enough to swing a handful of close elections in the next few cycles.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

All seems reasonable

Lou, to your point about specific things happening in specific states, it´s hard for me to know whether these stories are representative of what´s happening nationwide or whether you are just cherry picking things that support your argument. I don´t think I´ll ever have deep enough knowledge of the US to assess it that way.

I think national polling, and results of major elections are more key probably.

I still have a dream that Biden is bluffing when he says he is planning to run in 2024 in order to avoid being a lame duck President. And at some point in some months he announces that he would like to see some major candidates so that we have a proper contest, and then at the start of the contest really heating up, well into 2024, he suddenly pulls out.

I think he should pull out after encouraging some other major candidates to join the race and just confirming that others poll better against Trump than he does.

I think it´s in his own interest to go in 2024, before ill health and weakness kicks in, so he can spend more of his final years with his family, and quite while he is ahead. I think his Presidency will be remembered more positively if he puts the country and party first.

Biden vs Trump still looks like a coin toss - it could be decided by 2024´s economy, how Biden reacts to 2024´s big surprise challenge, or whatever fake news/terrorist attack/riot shakes things up a week before the election.

 

[Lou]

All seems reasonable

Lou, to your point about specific things happening in specific states, it´s hard for me to know whether these stories are representative of what´s happening nationwide or whether you are just cherry picking things that support your argument. I don´t think I´ll ever have deep enough knowledge of the US to assess it that way.

I think national polling, and results of major elections are more key probably.

I don't think I am cherry picking. those are just three examples. I could have listed more but the three I listed are the most significant

I am not feeling that great about Biden running again. However I think just like in 2020 the biggest factor in my mind is "electability". I'll take any Democrat (even Biden) over any Republican (especially Trump).
And Biden is electable. He has got the name recognition and now he has a track record too.

Also being always optimistic, I don't think Trump will be running. I asked my Magic Eight Ball if Trump will be indicted over the summer and it said, "most likely".

There is a Sheriff in Tx that has opened an investigation on kidnapping and DeSantis is the subject of the investigation. And maybe it's just bluster but the Gov of Ca has asked his AG to do the same. So maybe there will be two Republican candidates spending time in court rooms (or prison cells) instead of on the campaign trail.

 

[silva]

I don't think I am cherry picking. those are just three examples. I could have listed more but the three I listed are the most significant

I am not feeling that great about Biden running again. However I think just like in 2020 the biggest factor in my mind is "electability". I'll take any Democrat (even Biden) over any Republican (especially Trump).
And Biden is electable. He has got the name recognition and now he has a track record too.

Also being always optimistic, I don't think Trump will be running. I asked my Magic Eight Ball if Trump will be indicted over the summer and it said, "most likely".

There is a Sheriff in Tx that has opened an investigation on kidnapping and DeSantis is the subject of the investigation. And maybe it's just bluster but the Gov of Ca has asked his AG to do the same. So maybe there will be two Republican candidates spending time in court rooms (or prison cells) instead of on the campaign trail.

Biden is only electable because we've been brainwashed that we need a "moderate" candidate . We had trump again Clinton because she was electable, and the dems had as much to do with trump getting the nomination as the republicans

 

[Sax]

Anyone worried about Biden's electability should tell us which Democrat alternative is more electable.

Biden beats expectations over and over again and has actually won a presidential election and succeeded in pushing through big legislative wins. Without a viable, better alternative candidate all the hand wringing about his age and electability only helps the Republicans. So who's the alternative?

 

[Sax]

To be clear I'm not saying we should only support the most "electable" candidate. If there's a realistic challenger by all means make the positive case for supporting them. But until then I don't think people who want a Democrat in the White House are helping by spreading Biden negativity.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Anyone worried about Biden's electability should tell us which Democrat alternative is more electable.

Biden beats expectations over and over again and has actually won a presidential election and succeeded in pushing through big legislative wins. Without a viable, better alternative candidate all the hand wringing about his age and electability only helps the Republicans. So who's the alternative?

I think we should have a primary, and then we'll see.

if you have a primary and one candidate turns out to have a better polling vs Trump than Biden, then go with that person.

If it turns out other candidates poll worse than Biden, then stick with Biden.

If they can agree between them that any candidates that poll worse against Trump than Biden will pull out, then there's more to gain than lose from having a primary.

Therefore, I don't think I'm required to put up a specific alternative in order to propose a serious primary. it could be someone that ran last time, or a big name, or someone that comes out of nowhere - Bill Clinton was a minor player 2 years before he was President if I recall correctly.

We need the primary to find out.

By the way, we are about to start a major cycle of the Republican primary which means the media covering it a lot, TV debates, and the Republicans having a much bigger platform to criticise, offer policy proposals, come up with catchy slogans etc. While the democrats are left on the sidelines while Republicans get a huge platform to share their ideas with independents and moderates and centrists.

 

[Lou]

I think we should have a primary, and then we'll see.

if you have a primary and one candidate turns out to have a better polling vs Trump than Biden, then go with that person.

If it turns out other candidates poll worse than Biden, then stick with Biden.

If they can agree between them that any candidates that poll worse against Trump than Biden will pull out, then there's more to gain than lose from having a primary.

Therefore, I don't think I'm required to put up a specific alternative in order to propose a serious primary. it could be someone that ran last time, or a big name, or someone that comes out of nowhere - Bill Clinton was a minor player 2 years before he was President if I recall correctly.

We need the primary to find out.

By the way, we are about to start a major cycle of the Republican primary which means the media covering it a lot, TV debates, and the Republicans having a much bigger platform to criticise, offer policy proposals, come up with catchy slogans etc. While the democrats are left on the sidelines while Republicans get a huge platform to share their ideas with independents and moderates and centrists.

Nah. let the Republican candidates snipe at each other while the dems go on with a unifying messaging

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Let's hope you're right - that's the other way it could go - if the debates are toxic fighting it could make people think the divided country is the Republican's fault. You're ever the optimist, Lou.

 

[Sax]

Therefore, I don't think I'm required to put up a specific alternative in order to propose a serious primary.

Well of course not. I wouldn't mind seeing a serious contender challenge Biden...maybe a better candidate will emerge, or maybe it will prevent Biden from moving too far to the center. Someone that can challenge him on his environmental record in particular would be good.

It's just frustrating to see so much Biden negativity coming from the left with no real challenger in sight, and with Biden almost certain to be the nominee.

 

[beforewisdom]

I think Biden is doing a great job, especially considering that Democrats really don't control Congress.

I have had a few disappointments in regards to things he has not and has done.

Compromises means you don't get everything you want.

The fact that compromises are happening means there is still some health left in the U.S. two party system.

I still feel gratitude that I live in the timeline where Trump did NOT get his second term - codename "The Revenge Tour".

 

[Chryssie]

This is an interesting article concerning Ron DeSantis. He is a very dangerous person and must be stopped!

The shocking real reason DeSantis targeted New College is foretelling of things to come

I have yet to see in the media the full, true story of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ war on Florida’s public honors college, New College of Florida . The narrative has been that this is a small college ...

www.dailykos.com