Reincarnation
- Thread starter rainforests1
- Start date
If Richard Heinberg is correct, oil production will drop 2015 or 2016. Maybe two years after that oil production worldwide will start dropping drastically. Maybe 2017 or 2018. Oil prices will skyrocket and that will have a horrible effect on the economy. He's taking fracking into account as well. Even if they're proven wrong, oil will still be a problem. If the economy starts picking up soon, oil prices will rise again as driving increases. The economy is likely to suffer from that. The oil issue has to be addressed. People say cockroaches can survive anything. If I was born tomorrow, I think I'd prefer to be a cockroach than a human. They have a brighter future than humans do I'm afraid.
I dunno... I lived through both the 80s and the 60s. Maybe that's why the 80s don't seem so bad to me? I do like the music of both those decades. (Oops- that belongs in the anonymous confessions thread I think...)
ledboots
Peace
Please let everyone know your level of sentience if you do!I want to be reincarnated as an oyster so people can debate whether or not eating me is veg*n..
Yes, that topic has been reincarnated at the "other forum"...
That's why I'd have already built my hidden self contained earthship. I'd retreat to it and live out my days in comfort.
They say if you can remember the 60's you did it wrong.
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He's a doomsayer. The only difference between him and the Mayan calendar people who were yelling that the earth was going to end in 2012 is that he's using twisted oil production probabilities to support his scaremongering.
The oil crisis was a man created panic started in the 70's in order to raise oil company profits. We aren't actually in any immediate danger of running out.
-Even if I was proven wrong about the availability of oil, there are too many viable options already available to replace it, all we need is for the oil industry and government to stop crippling their use. And if the oil crisis ever actually occurred you'd see those technologies suddenly pushed to the forefront.
das_nut
Forum Legend
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If you think back about what happened when we hit peak whale oil, you'll realize how wrong you are.
Blobbenstein
.......
In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England’s factories would grind to a standstill.
In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California.
In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. (See Osterfeld, David. Prosperity Versus Planning : How Government Stifles Economic Growth. New York : Oxford University Press, 1992.)
In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.
1944 federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese.
In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.
In 1968, Dr. Paul Ehrlich, author of “The Population Bomb” and president of Stanford University’s Center for Conservation Biology wrote The Population Bomb and declared that the battle to feed humanity had been lost and that there would be a major food shortage in the US. “In the 1970s … hundreds of millions are going to starve to death,” and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources would be depleted. He forecast that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population would decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US would be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world. New Scientist magazine underscored his speech in an editorial titled “In Praise of Prophets.”
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” Paul Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971.
Jan. 1970: “By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” Life Magazine, January 1970. Life Magazine also noted that some people disagree, “but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the predictions.”
Data: Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that sunlight reaching the Earth fell by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.
April 1970: “If present trends continue, the world will be … eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” Kenneth E.F. Watt, in Earth Day, 1970.
1974: “… when metereologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age. Telltale signs are everywhere–from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice int eh waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data fro the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadia Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.”
Later in the article, “Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth’s surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.”
Source: “Another Ice Age,” Time Magazine, June 24, 1974.
1989: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010.” Associated Press, May 15, 1989.
Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has increased even less over the same period since 1970.
“[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots … [By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers.” Michel Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, Dead Heat, St. Martin’s Press, 1990. Oppenheimer is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University. He is the Director of the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy at the Wilson School. He was formerly a senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund, the largest non-governmental organization in the U.S. that examines problems and solutions to greenhouse gases.
In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California.
In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. (See Osterfeld, David. Prosperity Versus Planning : How Government Stifles Economic Growth. New York : Oxford University Press, 1992.)
In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.
1944 federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese.
In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.
In 1968, Dr. Paul Ehrlich, author of “The Population Bomb” and president of Stanford University’s Center for Conservation Biology wrote The Population Bomb and declared that the battle to feed humanity had been lost and that there would be a major food shortage in the US. “In the 1970s … hundreds of millions are going to starve to death,” and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources would be depleted. He forecast that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population would decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US would be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world. New Scientist magazine underscored his speech in an editorial titled “In Praise of Prophets.”
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” Paul Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971.
Jan. 1970: “By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” Life Magazine, January 1970. Life Magazine also noted that some people disagree, “but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the predictions.”
Data: Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that sunlight reaching the Earth fell by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.
April 1970: “If present trends continue, the world will be … eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” Kenneth E.F. Watt, in Earth Day, 1970.
1974: “… when metereologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age. Telltale signs are everywhere–from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice int eh waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data fro the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadia Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.”
Later in the article, “Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth’s surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.”
Source: “Another Ice Age,” Time Magazine, June 24, 1974.
1989: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010.” Associated Press, May 15, 1989.
Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has increased even less over the same period since 1970.
“[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots … [By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers.” Michel Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, Dead Heat, St. Martin’s Press, 1990. Oppenheimer is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University. He is the Director of the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy at the Wilson School. He was formerly a senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund, the largest non-governmental organization in the U.S. that examines problems and solutions to greenhouse gases.
Blobbenstein
.......
I hope you're right Dropkick. I've worried about the oil running out since I was a kid...I used to do diagrams of the spaceshuttle, and compare it to diagrams, I made, of, oil fields, to see how long we had..
Many other people are saying the same thing Heinberg has said. You'd have to completely change society around, going to renewables as well. That may take decades. You can't do it in a matter of years.
Blobbenstein
.......
if something like oilgae takes off, society wouldn't have to change that much. People could keep their cars. Power stations could keep burning oil. I wish more money went into renewable research.
beancounter
The Fire That Burns Within
I honestly don't know much about peak oil, but I can tell you what I do know.
Companies are both adverse to risk, and wish to continue as going concerns, and remain profitable. So, if the world oil supply is truely in danger of drying up, you better believe the oil industry is well aware of it, and is working on viable alternatives.
Also, they are working on the alternatives quietly, and will not admit to it because, they don't want to create panic and damage their current business model.
Companies are both adverse to risk, and wish to continue as going concerns, and remain profitable. So, if the world oil supply is truely in danger of drying up, you better believe the oil industry is well aware of it, and is working on viable alternatives.
Also, they are working on the alternatives quietly, and will not admit to it because, they don't want to create panic and damage their current business model.
Blobbenstein
.......
but if the oil is set to run out about we're all dead, maybe the oil people don't give a ****. They don't give a **** about global warming.
beancounter
The Fire That Burns Within
But their stock holders care (gotta keep the stock price up, and the dividens regular...), so they probably care
Blobbenstein
.......
well, I hope so....if they could solve the oil problem they would be set for millennia, as a business.....but I still worry that they are only concerned with the short term; short term stock prices as well.
beancounter
The Fire That Burns Within
That's true. Companies often just sprint from quarter to quarter, only concerned about making the books look good for the next 10K, but something that could spell complete disaster for the industry forces them to look at the long term.
das_nut
Forum Legend
- Joined
- Jun 4, 2012
- Reaction score
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But peak oil doesn't mean we run out of oil at a certain date. It means that we run out of increases in oil production at a certain date. The decline in oil production will happen over decades, and the rising cost of oil will encourage shifts in demand.
