US Politics-2022

[PTree15]

I am starting to hope in recent days, following recent Supreme Court rulings, and the January 6th hearings, that we may see a shift. Cross fingers.

My theory is that as long as the Republican party maintained a kind of 40% vs 60% minority rule in a sneaky way the American people would shrug it off, disagree with it, but not get organized.

But once it gets to a point of the 30% imposing their will on the 70% while being less sneaky and really laughing in everyone's faces about it then it's a change...and recent news moves more in that direction....people are going to get "mad as hell" and not "take this any more".

Something could just snap. Or just steadily build and build for a few years.

I'm hopeful more centrist and independents and moderates will think more about what's going on and vote democrat in 2022 or 2024.

Maybe I'm just blowing out steam from my liberal echo chamber. I think we need to keep an eye on polling data over the rest of the summer and see if there are any shifts in opinion.

I'm wondering if the Republicans have blown it. They've got themselves into a strong position of minority rule backed by businesses in a corrupt system and instead of just enjoying it they look like they are just going to get greedier and greedier until they just blow it.

I do think state rights are important, though. But the overall sense is also one of minority rule.

I guess my argument about minority rule is complicated a bit by the Republicans not having the Presidency or control of the houses. However they don't need that to block change.

I do worry, though, that states trying to put in election laws that basically let legislatures overturn the will of the people will gain traction. That could be a real problem even with a favorable outcome for Democrats. I'm sure the laws would be challenged, but that again could tie up election results in the courts.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

On a separate topic, I'm losing some confidence in Biden. I always knew he was a mediocre man. It was clear to me even when Obama was President. However I was hoping for a bit better than this.

He's not delivering on climate change and has recently announced more oil and gas drilling that goes against the spirit of his campaign and maybe even breaks a promise.

His claims to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah aren't really panning out either. I don't really trust anything he says any more.

He doesn't seem willing to really challenge the Republicans when they block things the majority of Americans want.

I can't think of a single truly great thing he has done right at this second.

His low popularity will kill off the old argument that he has a better chance to beat the Republicans than others.

 

[Lou]

Just like Obama, Biden does not toot his own horn. At least, IMHO, not enough.

I'm not a huge fan of Biden. but... he was more electable than many of the other candidates. And I think there are maybe some better alternatives for 2024. but we will cross that bridge when we come to it.

I'm sort of expecting the Republicans defeat themselves.

Biden's biggest accomplishments

The billion dollar infrastructure package. not exactly what anyone wanted but it got bipartisan support.
The Covid relief bill
This one doesn't get nearly the publicity it deserved. The appointment of Federal Judges. More than Trump. Eighty percent female, 50% people of color.
Climate change. Certainly not enough but we are not going in reverse. there has been significant progress
Transgender support
Reduced unemployment.

Joe Biden's 7 biggest achievements during his first year as president

A taxing year for the Biden administration has also achieved marked success.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Jamie in Chile]

I think the argument that Biden is the more electable candidate might have held true in 2020 but probably won't hold true by 2024.

In other news, it looks like the January 6th hearings have changed the situation from Trump: De Santis neck and neck for 2024 to De Santis being slight favourite. I expect this will be reflected in July's polling data, but let's see.

As Trump’s star wanes, another rises: could Ron DeSantis be the new Maga bearer?

With the January 6 hearings chipping away at the former president’s image, the Republican Florida governor is quietly working to turn the tide in his favor

www.theguardian.com

Trump proven unfit for power again - Washington Examiner

Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s Tuesday testimony ought to ring the death knell for former President Donald Trump’s political career. Trump is unfit to be anywhere near power ever again. Hutchinson’s resume alone should establish her credibility. The 25-year-old had already worked...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

The latter is just stating the obvious in saying Trump is unfit for power but what's notable is it comes from a conservative source

 

[Lou]

So a trailer for a documentary about the Trump family just dropped today. They were still filming it on Jan 6 so the film itself is of interest to the Jan 6 committee.

The film's title is Unprecedented. Which is weird cause there is a 2002 documentary with the same name. It's about the 2000 election. So I don't think the second documentary should be called unprecedented. Didn't the first move create the precedent. Plus it's a source of confusion.

Meanwhile I might just go an watch the 2004 documentary. You can rent it on YouTube for a couple of bucks.

Anyway there is already a ton of info out about the new documentary . Here it the trailer.

New Jan. 6 Trump documentary footage revealed

POLITICO has exclusively obtained a trailer for Alex Holder’s “Unprecedented,” which was among the footage the filmmaker turned over to the House Jan. 6 committee.

www.politico.com

 

[beancounter]

It used to be enough to sway independents, but that won't work anymore.

The people who should be watching the 1/6 hearings or watching films like Unprecedented never will...or they're so deep in the Kool-Aid, they wouldn't believe it if they did.

And with aggressive gerrymandering and voter suppression, and a SCOTUS willing to interpret the law in any manor that fits their agenda, new tactics will need to be developed to counter it.

Unfortunately, I don't get the feeling the Democrats will. They seem content to secure their state, but care little about the national stage, or the long term.

 

[Jamie in Chile]

The kool aid drinkers are only about 20% of the voters though. The idea is to mostly ignore them. The idea is to get a couple of % of conservative Reublican never trumpers to vote democrat if he runs, and another couple of % of centrists and independents to vote against him vs what did last time.

 

[Lou]

my eternal optimist side also thinks there is hope that as the Republican go further right, crazy, stupid, and criminal they will energize the left. And when I say "energize" I mean scare the **** out of them.
The stat I think does not get enough attention is that in any election, about 1/3 vote democrat, about 1/3 vote republican, and 1/3 don't vote. If the Republicans are awful enough they might get more people to vote.

However the Democrats can't win by a narrow margin. (see 2000). and with all the meddling the Republican will do (and by meddling I mean cheating) the Democrats will need lots of votes.

 

[beancounter]

The kool aid drinkers are only about 20% of the voters though. The idea is to mostly ignore them. The idea is to get a couple of % of conservative Reublican never trumpers to vote democrat if he runs, and another couple of % of centrists and independents to vote against him vs what did last time.

And what is the strategy if the nominee is someone other than Trump?

 

[Lou]

And what is the strategy if the nominee is someone other than Trump?

Well... if its someone other than Trump they automatically lose the the MAGA nutters. Maybe they will just stay home.

or better yet Trump and Desantis split the party.

 

[PTree15]

The kool aid drinkers are only about 20% of the voters though. The idea is to mostly ignore them. The idea is to get a couple of % of conservative Reublican never trumpers to vote democrat if he runs, and another couple of % of centrists and independents to vote against him vs what did last time.

Not sure I agree with this. More than 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020, so that's a lot of Kool-Aid drinkers. Sadly, I think Trumpism is still alive and well and will be carried on by other Trump disciples if the orange one doesn't run. I hope that's enough to galvanize Democrats and sway independents, but with the country in the state it's in and Congress mostly gridlocked on so many measures, I don't have a lot of hope for the midterms or 2024. If the economy somehow turns around, maybe there'll be a glimmer of hope.

 

[Lou]

Not sure I agree with this. More than 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020

That is my biggest concern. We may get rid of trump but WTF do we do with all the Trumpers.

Then when I start to feel like maybe things are going to turn around I watch a Lincoln Project on YouTube and get freaked out all over again.

 

[KLS52]

I’m very concerned about November and 2024 but then I freak out very easily.

 

[Lou]

Just learned about this guy.
After you get past the biography part scroll down to the "Sex, abortion, and drug scandals"
How does this guy keep getting re-elected? Just the fact that he remains in office is an indictment of Tennessee voters. And maybe even the Democrats who can't even unseat this wahoo.

Scott DesJarlais - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Jamie in Chile]

Not sure I agree with this. More than 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020, so that's a lot of Kool-Aid drinkers. Sadly, I think Trumpism is still alive and well and will be carried on by other Trump disciples if the orange one doesn't run. I hope that's enough to galvanize Democrats and sway independents, but with the country in the state it's in and Congress mostly gridlocked on so many measures, I don't have a lot of hope for the midterms or 2024. If the economy somehow turns around, maybe there'll be a glimmer of hope.

That 74 million includes people aren´t 74 million rally-attending, MAGA hat wearing conspiracist theorists.

It includes people who vote with the conservative because they are conservative, people who vote down democrats because of perceived focus too much on woke social justice and not enough on working class issues. Some of them love Trump, but some of them are feeling dirty as they mark Trump on the paper. Some of them are reachable.

 

[Lou]

At least 25 million are Trumpers. Could be more depending on the poll.

 

[anarchist100]

Biden will continue being a tyrant until 2024, when Trump will be elected, and resume his tyranny, until 2028 when we'll all die.

 

[anarchist100]

Just thought that I should mention, ALL cops are in fact bastards.

 

[anarchist100]

How many of those cops who died on January 6 do you suppose had enforced drug laws in the past? I'm not sure how anyone could really be upset about their deaths, frankly, I'm happy, as I am whenever a cop dies. It warms my heart.

 

[silva]

How many of those cops who died on January 6 do you suppose had enforced drug laws in the past? I'm not sure how anyone could really be upset about their deaths, frankly, I'm happy, as I am whenever a cop dies. It warms my heart.

There is so much corruption and dishonesty in policing that any cop that doesn't condemn it and speak out against is also a bad cop.those who do are removed or giving desk jobs.
But, I can't agree on killing being any answer
Our entire 'justice' system is a farce. If you've heard anything of the horrific shooting in Akron Oh of an unarmed young black man it's just another example.
There is a place for armed assistence, but by far there is a need for unarmed peace officers. I can testify that I've never had an encounter where I was glad the police showed up. It's been quite the opposite