Brian W
Conscientious Christian
What do you guys think about the Puerto Rican issue? Do you think it will make much of a difference?
US US Politics 2024
- Thread starter Second Summer
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Lou
Forum Legend
it doesn't have to "make much of a difference". According to everyone the race is so tight that a swing state might be won by a fraction of a percent.
after that comment about Puerto Rico, a Puerto Rican music superstar, Bad Bunny, endorsed Harris.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2020, the Puerto Rican population was the largest detailed Hispanic group in Pennsylvania. The Pew Research Center says Pennsylvania has the fourth-highest Puerto Rican population in the United States which makes up about 8% of the state’s population.
Nope, because many of his followers likely think the same way. Half of them probably don't know that Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory.
Lou
Forum Legend
yes, I agree this is not an issue among Trumpers.
However if there are Puerto Rican Trumpers they may leave and either not vote or vote for Harris.
Also if there are Puerto Rican Undecided or ones who were not planning on voting - this could change their minds. This doesn't have to be a large number. In PA, it's a dead heat. The election could be decided by just a few hundred voters.
OP
OP
So, given that the presidential election is likely going to be very tight, which of the required swing states do you think Harris is most likely to win (so that she wins the election)?
- To me it looks like the only likely combination is Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which gives Harris exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum required to win.
- One alternative could be Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, which gives her 273 electoral votes.
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Lou
Forum Legend
I remember months ago reading an article that broke all the possible paths to victory. I don't remember too much of the nuts and bolts. but the major take-a-way I remember is that Harris will have to win 3 or 4 of the swing states. So pretty much what you said.
Lictman's system is not foolproof - he has gotten one wrong in the last 40 years. but he says he has continually improved it so maybe now it is failsafe.
At is wasn't the Dems who choose Harris. It was Biden. And that decision was made 5 years ago. That was a campaign promise and it very well have helped him win the election the first time. Her being a female of color does give her an "electability" issue but on the other hand it does help her get some votes too.
Lictman's system is not foolproof - he has gotten one wrong in the last 40 years. but he says he has continually improved it so maybe now it is failsafe.
At is wasn't the Dems who choose Harris. It was Biden. And that decision was made 5 years ago. That was a campaign promise and it very well have helped him win the election the first time. Her being a female of color does give her an "electability" issue but on the other hand it does help her get some votes too.
OP
OP
The Dems would have been able to choose someone else if Biden had withdrawn before the convention. But they dithered and squandered that opportunity, so when push finally came to shove, their only realistic option was the VP. Harris has had some of the worst VP favourability ratings in recent history, although I think she's doing better now as a presidential candidate.
