News 2016 U.S. Presidential election - the highs and lows

Seems that Sanders has done quite well in Wisconsin ... 56% vs. 43%
And Cruz beat Trump.

Wisconsin Primary Election Results
That is the kind of victory Sanders needs to win the nomination. If he'd only won by a percentage point or so it wouldn't have been sufficient. So the progressive hope is still alive after this :) Of course, he needs to do the same in New York and California, which seems unlikely at the moment. But now Sanders definitely has got momentum, so I think this nomination will be a bit less predictable and boring than we thought for a while.
 
Next, on the Dems side, is the Wyoming caucus, this Saturday; then, Hillary and Bernie will debate each other in NYC on the 14th, prior to the New York vote on the 19th.
 
Wisconsin was an open primary. Bernie just won it by double-digit. He's also won Michigan, Democrats abroad, Vermont, Oklahoma, and New Hampshire, all of which were primaries, three of them also by double-digits, in addition to the ten caucus states he's won. I don't think there's a magic formula for predicting who's going to win, based on the differences between caucuses and primaries. News journalists just seem desperate for ways to 'spin' the election.
 
Wisconsin was an open primary. Bernie just won it by double-digit. He's also won Michigan, Democrats abroad, Vermont, Oklahoma, and New Hampshire, all of which were primaries, three of them also by double-digits, in addition to the ten caucus states he's won. I don't think there's a magic formula for predicting who's going to win, based on the differences between caucuses and primaries. News journalists just seem desperate for ways to 'spin' the election.
Yes, I too don't buy the "Sanders can only win caucuses" theory. I think it's more a question of how progressive or conservative the Democratic voters are in the particular states, though other factors also come into play.

If you take a look at e.g. the map here (click on Clinton's head to see the Democratic results):
US Primary Election Results, Nominating Contests
... then you can see there is a clear geographical divide north vs south, with adjoining states voting similarly.

Based on this, and assuming the FBI doesn't come to Sander's rescue, I predict the following results :)
Sanders will win: Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, North & South Dakotas.
Clinton will win: Most of the remaining states. California and New York are border states in this north vs south division, but since Clinton won Nevada and Arizona, I feel convinced California will go the same way. As for New York, I'm relying on the polls.
 
Here's another way to look at it, geographically-

map.jpg


Note that Nevada has been turned around, and declared a victory for Sanders, due to 'phase 2' of its caucus process, involving county-wide meetings. I don't fully understand the process, but it's resulted in 2 more delegates being awarded to Sanders, and the whole state declared a win for him. Iowa, Missouri, and Massachusetts are shown as 'ties,' because the voting results there were within less than 1% difference for each candidate. Also, on both maps, if Alaska and Hawaii were placed in their proper positions, and shown to scale, it would visually show Sanders' support to have a strong lean toward the west.

It should be kept in mind too that a significant amount of Clinton's wins occurred in the early stages of voting, when Sanders had almost no name-recognition, thanks to the media blackout of his campaign. Hardly anyone knew he was running. Now that he's getting more and more attention, and people are learning who he is, and about his platform, I think early voting trends are not reliable to indicate what may come.

To understand the United States geographically, you should know the whole west coast, including Washington, Oregon and California, is isolated from the rest of the country by a high mountain range, almost as if those three states exist on another continent. California is next door to Nevada, but they are completely different. California is densely populated, with fertile terrain, and a rich diversity of agriculture and industry, whereas Nevada (mostly desert) is sparsely populated, whose main income is from the operation of casinos and hotels. 3/4 of the state's population lives in a single county, near Las Vegas. California may be in proximity to Arizona and Nevada, but that doesn't mean it will vote as they voted. New York remains an enigma for me. Clinton adopted the state as her home, and represented it in the Congress, but Sanders is its native son. I think the debate to be held there next week in Brooklyn will have a lot of influence over what happens there, more so than voting results in other primaries or caucuses.
 
Well, we can speculate only at this time.

But yes, I too hope that time and information are working for Senator Sanders.
 
Note that Nevada has been turned around, and declared a victory for Sanders, due to 'phase 2' of its caucus process, involving county-wide meetings. I don't fully understand the process, but it's resulted in 2 more delegates being awarded to Sanders, and the whole state declared a win for him.
Interesting! The Wikipedia article on the topic references this article:
What just happened in Nevada? Did Sanders suddenly beat Clinton?

I'm confused as to how the Wikipedia article can say it's been estimated that each candidate will get 20 delegates for the national convention. I don't see those numbers mentioned in the referenced article, but perhaps it's been updated later.
 
Here's an interesting development. Senator Sanders has been invited to Rome next week to speak at a Vatican conference on social, economic, and environmental issues. It's not clear whether any of the other presidential candidates were likewise invited. Pope Francis has not endorsed any candidate for president, although he did describe Donald Trump as being 'non-Christian,' because of his views on immigration. The conference will take place on the 15th, the day after the Brooklyn debate, just 4-days before the New York primary.

Bernie Sanders accepts Pope Francis' Vatican invitation
 
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With 96% reporting, it looks like Sanders has another double-digit win in Wyoming. Bernie, 56%. Hillary, 44%.
 
Yea, I kind of figured. Both of them have the "home town advantage" Of course, Cruz shot himself in the foot with his "New York values" comment. But I bet that was a calculated move, as he probably didn't think he'd have a chance of winning in NY anyway.

And Southerners ate it up, so you're right about that.
 
Yea, I kind of figured. Both of them have the "home town advantage" Of course, Cruz shot himself in the foot with his "New York values" comment. But I bet that was a calculated move, as he probably didn't think he'd have a chance of winning in NY anyway.

Politics is all such bs. Bernie is from Brooklyn NY, Hillary from Chicago, IL